Table 1 Contrasting quantitative microbial risk-assessment models and infectious disease-transmission models.
From: Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings
Modeling aspects | Quantitative microbial risk-assessment model | Dynamic transmission model |
|---|---|---|
Non-linear dynamics | Usually no | Usually yes |
Environmental sources | Yes | Usually no |
Inclusion of uncertainty/stochasticity | Yes | Case-by-case basis (deterministic dynamical systems, stochastic, hybrid models) |
Time scale | Days | Weeks to months |
Population size | Thousands (music festival) to millions (Hajj pilgrimage) | Hundred thousands to millions |
Population density | High | Low to high |
Model structure | Spatial-temporal network (Summer Olympics); confined space (Army barracks) | Age-structured, random-mixing populations; patch models; household-level models; large-scale individual-level models |
Stochastic disease extinction | Yes | Unlikely |
Endemicity | No | Yes |
Contribution of super-spreading events | High | Low to moderate |