Statistical association between the predicted and observed activity peaks. Peak week as simulated by the model in the baseline stochastic forecast output (SFO) set with α
min = 0.65 versus the peak week observed by surveillance systems in the countries outlined in Figure 5. The reference ranges of the simulated peak week were obtained by analysis of 2,000 stochastic realizations of the model. In the inset, we show the box plot indicating the distribution of the differences between the simulated peak week for the baseline SFO set with α
min = 0.65, and the observed peak week.