From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
Parameter | Description | Value^{2} | Sensitivity analysis range |
---|---|---|---|
R _{0} | Reference reproduction number in the Tropics | ||
α _{min} | Minimal seasonality rescaling | ||
G _{ t } | Generation time, days^{3} | 3.6 (2.2 to 5.1) | |
μ ^{-1} | Mean infectious period, days^{3} | 2.5 (1.1 to 4.0) | |
ε ^{-1} | Average latency period, days | 1.1 days | 1.1 to 2.5 |
r _{ β } | Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 |
p _{ a } | Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual | 0.33 | 0.33 and 0.5 |
p _{ t } | Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual | 0.5 | 0.4 to 0.6 |
β | Transmission rate | μ ^{-1} R _{0}/(1-p _{ a }-r _{ β } p _{ t }) | As calculated from the reference range of R _{0} |
α _{max} | Maximal seasonality rescaling | 1.1 | 1.0 and 1.1 |