Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Table 1 Epidemiological parameters.¹

Parameter	Description	Value²	Sensitivity analysis range
R ₀	Reference reproduction number in the Tropics
α _min	Minimal seasonality rescaling
G _t	Generation time, days³	3.6 (2.2 to 5.1)
μ ^-1	Mean infectious period, days³	2.5 (1.1 to 4.0)
ε ^-1	Average latency period, days	1.1 days	1.1 to 2.5
r _β	Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals	0.5	0.1 to 0.8
p _a	Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual	0.33	0.33 and 0.5
p _t	Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual	0.5	0.4 to 0.6
β	Transmission rate	μ ^-1 R ₀/(1-p _a-r _β p _t)	As calculated from the reference range of R ₀
α _max	Maximal seasonality rescaling	1.1	1.0 and 1.1

¹Estimates from the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis for various values of the parameter space explored.
²The estimated values of R ₀ and α _min for all the stochastic forecast outputs are reported in Table 3.
³The G _t , μ ^-1 intervals were set in the MCML analysis and defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfied a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level (see text).

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