Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 1 Epidemiological parameters.1

From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Parameter Description Value2 Sensitivity analysis range
R 0 Reference reproduction number in the Tropics   
α min Minimal seasonality rescaling   
G t Generation time, days3 3.6 (2.2 to 5.1)  
μ -1 Mean infectious period, days3 2.5 (1.1 to 4.0)  
ε -1 Average latency period, days 1.1 days 1.1 to 2.5
r β Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals 0.5 0.1 to 0.8
p a Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual 0.33 0.33 and 0.5
p t Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual 0.5 0.4 to 0.6
β Transmission rate μ -1 R 0/(1-p a -r β p t ) As calculated from the reference range of R 0
α max Maximal seasonality rescaling 1.1 1.0 and 1.1
  1. 1Estimates from the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis for various values of the parameter space explored.
  2. 2The estimated values of R 0 and α min for all the stochastic forecast outputs are reported in Table 3.
  3. 3The G t , μ -1 intervals were set in the MCML analysis and defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfied a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level (see text).