From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
Full dataset | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Epidemic statistic | Population variable | Correlation observed in real dataa | Correlation predicted by the modela | ||
 |  | r | P | r | P |
Worldwide | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Peak week | Air traffic to/from North America | -0.30 | 0.042 | -0.30 | 0.044 |
Peak week | Longitudeb | 0.27 | 0.071 | 0.42 | 0.003 |
Peak week | Latitudeb | -0.15 | 0.317 | 0.02 | 0.882 |
Peak week | Vaccine uptake | -0.37 | 0.069 | -0.38 | 0.060 |
Attack rate reduction, % | Vaccine uptake | Â | Â | 0.73 | < 0.001 |
European countries only | |||||
Peak week | Intra-EU air traffic | -0.15 | 0.391 | -0.48 | 0.003 |
Peak week | Air traffic to/from North America | -0.26 | 0.151 | -0.37 | 0.003 |
Peak week | Longitudeb | 0.54 | < 0.001 | 0.74 | < 0.001 |
Peak week | Latitudeb | -0.32 | 0.07 | -0.23 | 0.178 |
Peak week | Vaccine uptake | -0.29 | 0.204 | -0.28 | 0.212 |
Attack rate reduction, % | Vaccine uptake | Â | Â | 0.69 | < 0.001 |