Figure 4

Reference scenario. (A) Probability of outbreak for different values of R₀ by assuming no intervention scenario (uncontrolled epidemics) and reference scenario. (B) Probability of undetected epidemics for different values of R₀ by assuming reference scenario (in red) and reference scenario with different values of P_c. (C) Upper panel: overall number of cases in contained outbreaks by assuming reference scenario and R₀ = 1.5 (not considering autoextinct epidemics). Middle panel: as upper panel but for the number of traced cases. Lower panel: as upper panel but for the number of isolated individuals (including the laboratory’s contact network). A total of 1,000 simulations were undertaken for each parameter set to produce the results shown.