Table 1 Key model parameters with source and ranges (epidemic and behavioral characteristics, intervention scale and effectiveness, health and intervention costs)
Parameter | Value and source | Range |
|---|---|---|
Prevalence | ||
HIV prevalence | 17.9% [24] | 17.2% to 18.3% |
ART | ||
Initial access to ART | 40% [24] | 35% to 45% |
ART quit rate (annual) | 0.02 Est | 0.00 to 0.20 |
Sexual transmission reduction | 95% [9] | 50.0% to 99.0% |
PrEP | ||
PrEP quit rate (annual) | 0.05 Est | 0.00 to 0.20 |
Sexual acquisition reduction | 10% to 90% | |
Sexual behavior | ||
Number of sexual partners per year - general | 1.5 [25], Est | 1 to 2 |
Number of sexual partners per year - high risk | 4 Est | 3 to 5 |
Condom usage rate - general | 25% [25], Est | 10% to 40% |
Condom usage rate - high risk | 5% Est | 0% to 10% |
Condom effectiveness | 90% [26] | 85.0% to 95.0% |
Annual costs (US$) | ||
Non-HIV medical costs | 200 | 100 to 300 |
HIV costs | 1,000 [27] | 800 to 1200 |
ART cost | 100 to 200 | |
PrEP cost | 50 to 250 |