ART Guidelines portfolios | Base case | (50% Guidelines ART, 0% General PrEP) | (50% Guidelines ART, 50% General PrEP) | (50% Guidelines ART, 100% General PrEP) | (100% Guidelines ART, 0% General PrEP) | (100% Guidelines ART, 50% General PrEP) | (100% Guidelines ART, 100% General PrEP) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population | 28,899,757 | 30,584,812 | 31,140,505 | 31,243,269 | 31,155,266 | 31,559,954 | 31,637,147 |
HIV population | 3,010,186 | 2,952,938 | 1,957,738 | 1,857,875 | 2,924,495 | 2,038,587 | 1,946,176 |
HIV prevalence | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
PrEP entry | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(late and advanced) | 10% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(early) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Started ART | 1,898,565 | 4,291,707 | 3,525,062 | 3,400,388 | 4,983,325 | 4,178,534 | 4,048,308 |
Total QALYs | |||||||
(millions) | 939 | 982 | 1,003 | 1,007 | 998 | 1,015 | 1,017 |
Total costs | |||||||
($ billions) | $282.2 | $299.8 | $343.5 | $349.0 | $306.0 | $350.8 | $356.5 |
Infections averted | 1,512,972 | 3,545,397 | 3,826,716 | 2,030,990 | 3,751,962 | 3,993,700 | |
CE ratio | $413 | $958 | $992 | $408 | $914 | $954 | |
ART Universal portfolios | Base case | (50% Universal ART, 0% General PrEP) | (50% Universal ART, 50% General PrEP) | (50% Universal, 100% General PrEP) | (100% Universal ART, 0% General PrEP) | (100% Universal ART, 50% General PrEP) | (100% Universal ART, 100% General PrEP) |
Total Population | 28,899,757 | 31,957,916 | 32,099,883 | 32,135,197 | 32,344,976 | 32,424,302 | 32,444,183 |
HIV population | 3,010,186 | 2,429,248 | 2,020,691 | 1,965,384 | 2,372,222 | 2,045,369 | 2,002,584 |
HIV prevalence | 10.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
PrEP entry | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(late and advanced) | 10% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(early) | 0% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Started ART | 1,898,565 | 5,605,789 | 4,997,687 | 4,883,560 | 5,946,284 | 5,442,264 | 5,354,623 |
Total QALYs | |||||||
(millions) | 939 | 1,025 | 1,031 | 1,033 | 1,037 | 1,041 | 1,042 |
Total costs | |||||||
($ billions) | $282.2 | $309.1 | $360.2 | $366.2 | $312.3 | $365.7 | $372.1 |
Infections averted | 3,591,057 | 4,356,210 | 4,494,263 | 4,014,941 | 4,579,560 | 4,675,735 | |
CE ratio | $314 | $849 | $902 | $307 | $819 | $876 | |
Focused PrEP portfolios | Base case | (10% Guidelines ART, 50% Focused PrEP) | (10% Guidelines ART, 100% Focused PrEP) | (50% Guidelines ART, 100% Focused PrEP) | (100% Guidelines ART, 100% Focused PrEP) | (50% Universal ART, 100% Focused PrEP) | (100% Universal ART, 100% Focused PrEP) |
Total Population | 28,899,757 | 29,582,098 | 30,075,564 | 31,218,742 | 31,624,528 | 32,147,612 | 32,457,488 |
HIV population | 3,010,186 | 2,232,122 | 1,743,582 | 1,983,526 | 2,059,891 | 2,010,021 | 2,038,731 |
HIV prevalence | 10.4% | 7.55% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
PrEP entry | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(late and advanced) | 10% | 10% | 10% | 50% | 100% | 50% | 100% |
ART entry | |||||||
(early) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% |
Started ART | 1,898,565 | 1,639,299 | 1,454,123 | 3,455,184 | 4,104,640 | 4,897,716 | 5,362,426 |
Total QALYs | |||||||
(millions) | 939 | 962 | 978 | 1,006 | 1,016 | 1,033 | 1,042 |
Total costs | |||||||
($ billions) | $282.2 | $277.1 | 274.9 | 292.9 | 299.8 | 307.9 | 313.3 |
Infections averted | 1,837,744 | 3,084,508 | 3,642,543 | 3,840,111 | 4,468,827 | 4,663,411 | |
CE ratio | Cost saving | Cost saving | $163 | $229 | $276 | $302 | |
General PrEP portfolios | Base case | (10% Guidelines ART, 50% General PrEP) | (10% Guidelines ART, 100% General PrEP) | ||||
Total Population | 28,899,757 | 29,970,799 | 30,151,535 | ||||
HIV population | 3,010,186 | 1,693,209 | 1,579,445 | ||||
HIV prevalence | 10.4% | 5.65% | 5.24% | ||||
PrEP entry | 0% | 50% | 100% | ||||
ART entry | |||||||
(late and advanced) | 10% | 10% | 10% | ||||
ART entry | |||||||
(early) | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||
Started ART | 1,898,565 | 1,485,240 | 1,420,126 | ||||
Total QALYs | |||||||
(millions) | 939 | 975 | 980 | ||||
Total costs | |||||||
($ billions) | $282.2 | $323.9 | $329.6 | ||||
Infections averted | 2,998,344 | 3,381,214 | |||||
CE ratio | $1,172 | $1,158 |