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Table 2 Predictors of short-term mortality and 1 month mortality in the derivation sample

From: Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Parameter

Short-term mortalitya

1 month mortality

 

OR

Pvalue

OR

Pvalue

Age, yearsb

1.051

0.0237

1.0411

0.0294

Male sex

1.314

0.7120

1.8

0.4226

Baseline FEV: <50 versus ≥50

2.197

0.1185

2.587

0.0365

Charlson Comorbidity Indexb

1.297

0.0016

1.360

<0.0001

Previous use of LTHOT or NIMV at home

4.690

0.0001

4.755

<0.0001

Number of COPD-related admissions in the previous 12 monthsc

1.168

0.1502

1.137

0.187

Altered consciousness

11.87

<0.0001

8.308

<0.0001

Presence of edema

1.056

0.9140

1.246

0.6268

Dyspnea upon ED arrival

3.531

0.0414

1.92

0.1268

Heart rate upon ED arrivalb

1.028

0.0017

1.020

0.0128

Use of inspiratory accessory muscle upon ED arrival

4.026

0.0001

2.79

0.0019

Breathing frequency upon ED arrival

    

20 to 24 versus <20

3.350

0.2530

2.811

0.1726

>24 versus <20

7.381

0.0529

4.123

0.0585

pH upon ED arrival

    

7.26 to 7.35 versus ≥7.35

2.631

0.0456

2.086

0.0931

<7.26 versus ≥7.35

7.777

0.0020

7.323

0.0006

PO2 upon ED arrival

    

45 to 60 versus >60

0.762

0.5431

0.630

0.2350

≤45 versus >60

1.046

0.9379

0.866

0.7764

PCO2 upon ED arrival

    

46 to 55 versus ≤45

2.8226

0.047

3.003

0.0115

56 to 65 versus ≤45

0.676

0.7150

0.949

0.9463

>65 versus ≤45

8.514

<0.0001

7.413

<0.0001

Baseline dyspnea (MRC scale)

    

MRC3 versus MRC1 to MRC2

6.398

0.1064

3.335

0.2960

MRC4 versus MRC1 to MRC2

8.035

0.0397

4.810

0.0601

MRC5 versus MRC1 to MRC2

61.599

<0.0001

26.115

<0.0001

Missing versus MRC1 to MRC2

50.583

<0.0001

22.185

<0.0001

  1. Abbreviations: COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ED emergency department, FEV forced expiratory volume, LTHOT long-term home oxygen therapy, MRC Medical Research Council, NIMV non-invasive mechanical ventilation, PCO 2 carbon dioxide partial pressure, PO 2 oxygen partial pressure.
  2. aShort-term mortality: mortality during hospital admission or, if discharged from the ED, in 1 week.
  3. b Variables included as continuous.
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