Skip to main content

Table 2 Predictors of short-term mortality and 1 month mortality in the derivation sample

From: Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Parameter Short-term mortalitya 1 month mortality
  OR Pvalue OR Pvalue
Age, yearsb 1.051 0.0237 1.0411 0.0294
Male sex 1.314 0.7120 1.8 0.4226
Baseline FEV: <50 versus ≥50 2.197 0.1185 2.587 0.0365
Charlson Comorbidity Indexb 1.297 0.0016 1.360 <0.0001
Previous use of LTHOT or NIMV at home 4.690 0.0001 4.755 <0.0001
Number of COPD-related admissions in the previous 12 monthsc 1.168 0.1502 1.137 0.187
Altered consciousness 11.87 <0.0001 8.308 <0.0001
Presence of edema 1.056 0.9140 1.246 0.6268
Dyspnea upon ED arrival 3.531 0.0414 1.92 0.1268
Heart rate upon ED arrivalb 1.028 0.0017 1.020 0.0128
Use of inspiratory accessory muscle upon ED arrival 4.026 0.0001 2.79 0.0019
Breathing frequency upon ED arrival     
20 to 24 versus <20 3.350 0.2530 2.811 0.1726
>24 versus <20 7.381 0.0529 4.123 0.0585
pH upon ED arrival     
7.26 to 7.35 versus ≥7.35 2.631 0.0456 2.086 0.0931
<7.26 versus ≥7.35 7.777 0.0020 7.323 0.0006
PO2 upon ED arrival     
45 to 60 versus >60 0.762 0.5431 0.630 0.2350
≤45 versus >60 1.046 0.9379 0.866 0.7764
PCO2 upon ED arrival     
46 to 55 versus ≤45 2.8226 0.047 3.003 0.0115
56 to 65 versus ≤45 0.676 0.7150 0.949 0.9463
>65 versus ≤45 8.514 <0.0001 7.413 <0.0001
Baseline dyspnea (MRC scale)     
MRC3 versus MRC1 to MRC2 6.398 0.1064 3.335 0.2960
MRC4 versus MRC1 to MRC2 8.035 0.0397 4.810 0.0601
MRC5 versus MRC1 to MRC2 61.599 <0.0001 26.115 <0.0001
Missing versus MRC1 to MRC2 50.583 <0.0001 22.185 <0.0001
  1. Abbreviations: COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ED emergency department, FEV forced expiratory volume, LTHOT long-term home oxygen therapy, MRC Medical Research Council, NIMV non-invasive mechanical ventilation, PCO 2 carbon dioxide partial pressure, PO 2 oxygen partial pressure.
  2. aShort-term mortality: mortality during hospital admission or, if discharged from the ED, in 1 week.
  3. b Variables included as continuous.