Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 3 Predictors of short-term mortality and 1 month mortality in the derivation sample

From: Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Outcome prediction model/parameter Estimate OR 95% CI of the AUC Pvalue Score
Short-term mortalitya      
Age, years      
75 to 85 versus <75 0.2417 1.273 0.540 to 3.003 0.5808 0
>85 versus <75 1.3062 3.692 1.134 to 12.022 0.0301 3
Previous use of LTHOT or NIMV at home 1.1557 3.176 1.278 to 7.893 0.0128 3
Altered consciousness 1.1852 3.271 1.031 to 10.376 0.0442 3
Use of inspiratory accessory muscle or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival 1.4740 4.367 1.912 to 9.972 0.0005 4
Baseline dyspnea (MRC scale)      
Grade 5 versus grades 1 to 4 2.0456 7.734 2.923 to 20.463 <0.0001 5
Missing versus grades 1 to 4 2.5581 12.912 4.654 to 35.821 <0.0001 5
bDerivation sample: AUCmodel = 0.85 (0.77 to 0.93); AUCscore = 0.85 (0.77 to 0.93) AUCscore _ cat = 0.84 (0.76 to 0.91)
bValidation sample: AUCmodel = 0.88 (0.82 to 0.94); AUCscore = 0.84 (0.77 to 0.92) AUCscore _ cat = 0.85(0.78 to 0.92)
1 month mortality (validation sample)
Age, years      
75 to 85 versus <75 0.8199 2.270 1.092 to 4.719 0.0281  
>85 versus <75 1.9253 6.857 2.701 to 17.411 <0.0001  
Previous use of LTHOT or NIMV at home 1.3737 3.950 1.956 to 7.976 0.0001  
Altered consciousness 0.9513 2.589 0.887 to 7.557 0.0817  
Use of inspiratory accessory muscle or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival 1.2508 3.493 1.850 to 6.596 0.0001  
Baseline dyspnea (MRC scale)      
Grade 5 versus grades 1 to 4 1.1743 3.236 1.581 to 6.625 0.0013  
Missing versus grades 1 to 4 1.3324 3.790 1.643 to 8.742 0.0018  
bValidation sample: AUCmodel = 0.85 (0.81 to 0.90); AUCscore = 0.83 (0.78 to 0.88); AUCscore _ cat = 0.83 (0.78 to 0.88)
  1. Abbreviations: AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, LTHOT long-term home oxygen therapy, MRC Medical Research Council, NIMV non-invasive mechanical ventilation.
  2. aShort-term mortality: mortality during hospital admission or, if discharged from the ED, in 1 week.
  3. bAUCs are the results for the whole model, the continuous score, and the categorical score, respectively.