Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria

Table 1 Covariate estimates for models using data through May 2013

Component	Variable	Full	Selected	Null
Poisson	Intercept	-11.21	-11.51	-12.68
		(-11.88, -10.51)	(-11.83, -11.17)	(-13.03, -12.37)
	Population Immunity	-2.50	-1.80
		(-3.32, -1.66)	(-2.20, -1.44)
	Zero-Dose Fraction	-0.72
		(-1.47, -0.02)
	Density	0.02
		(-0.07, 0.11)
	Sqrt Recent Cases	-0.05
		(-0.11, 0.02)
	Sqrt Neighboring Recent Cases	0.02
		(-0.02, 0.05)
Bernoulli	Intercept	-0.91	-1.11	-3.60
		(-1.64, -0.16)	(-1.42, -0.80)	(-3.80, -3.43)
	Population Immunity	-4.86	-4.74
		(-5.69, -4.01)	(-5.27, -4.21)
	Zero-Dose Fraction	-0.19
		(-1.12, 0.75)
	Density	-0.02
		(-0.11, 0.08)
	Sqrt Recent Cases	0.19	0.19
		(0.07, 0.31)	(0.07, 0.32)
	Sqrt Neighboring Recent Cases	0.17	0.17
		(0.10, 0.23)	(0.10, 0.23)
	DIC	9263.6	9266.8	10121.3
	N	13932	13932	13932
Variance	Bernoulli CAR^a	1.51	1.50	1.48
Components		(1.06, 2.08)	(1.04, 2.04)	(1.08, 1.98)
	Bernoulli Ind^b	0.10	0.10	0.09
		(0.06, 0.17)	(0.05, 0.18)	(0.05, 0.15)
	Poisson CAR^c	0.49	0.46	0.67
		(0.24, 0.86)	(0.22, 0.79)	(0.39, 1.05)
	Poisson Ind^d	0.14	0.13	0.15
		(0.08, 0.23)	(0.07, 0.22)	(0.08, 0.23)
	Covariance CAR^e	0.10	0.07	0.42
		(-0.23, 0.46)	(-0.23, 0.39)	(0.12, 0.77)
	Covariance Ind^f	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
		(-0.05, 0.04)	(-0.07, 0.04)	(-0.06, 0.04)

95% credible intervals (CI) are presented in parentheses underneath corresponding parameter estimates.
^aSpatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
^bNon-spatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
^cSpatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
^dNon-spatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
^eSpatial random effect covariance.
^fNon-spatial random effect covariance.

ISSN: 1741-7015