Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria

Table 2 Coefficient estimates from the selected model applied historically

Component	Variable	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Poisson	Intercept	-11.42	-11.50	-11.60	-11.80	-12.20
		(-11.76, -11.09)	(-11.87, -11.17)	(-11.96, -11.24)	(-12.22, -11.39)	(-12.79, -11.69)
	Population	-1.95	-1.80	-1.60	-1.62	-1.28
	Immunity	(-2.40, -1.51)	(-2.30, -1.31)	(-2.09, -1.10)	(-2.14, -1.11)	(-1.92, -0.61)
Binomial	Intercept	-0.81	-0.54	-0.75	-1.43	-1.89
		(-1.14, -0.46)	(-0.91, -0.17)	(-1.16, -0.35)	(-1.81, -1.02)	(-2.42, -1.36)
	Population	-5.24	-5.69	-5.03	-3.42	-3.17
	Immunity	(-5.82, -4.65)	(-6.34, -5.07)	(-5.71, -4.36)	(-4.18, -2.71)	(-4.19, -2.20)
	Sqrt Recent	0.19	0.18	0.18	0.13	0.18
	Cases	(0.06, 0.32)	(0.05, 0.30)	(0.05, 0.31)	(0.01, 0.26)	(0.04, 0.33)
	Sqrt Neighboring	0.17	0.18	0.16	0.06	0.02
	Recent Cases	(0.10, 0.24)	(0.11, 0.25)	(0.09, 0.23)	(-0.01, 0.13)	(-0.07, 0.10)
	DIC	8732.4	8306.9	8107.3	7798.5	6200.7
	N	12384	10836	9288	7740	6192
Variance	Bernoulli CAR^a	1.47	1.49	1.41	1.59	1.81
Components		(1.03, 2.03)	(1.02, 2.06)	(0.97, 1.98)	(1.08, 2.23)	(1.26, 2.52)
	Bernoulli Ind^b	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.12
		(0.06, 0.19)	(0.06, 0.19)	(0.06, 0.19)	(0.06, 0.19)	(0.06, 0.22)
	Poisson CAR^c	0.47	0.49	0.50	0.51	0.61
		(0.22, 0.80)	(0.24, 0.85)	(0.24, 0.86)	(0.25, 0.85)	(0.30, 1.02)
	Poisson Ind^d	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.18
		(0.07, 0.22)	(0.07, 0.24)	(0.08, 0.23)	(0.08, 0.23)	(0.10, 0.28)
	Covariance CAR^e	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.26	0.36
		(-0.28, 0.34)	(-0.31, 0.41)	(-0.28, 0.38)	(-0.10, 0.63)	(-0.06, 0.76)
	Covariance Ind^f	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03
		(-0.07, 0.04)	(-0.07, 0.04)	(-0.07, 0.04)	(-0.07, 0.04)	(-0.10, 0.04)

Models are estimated using data through the first half of the year that identifies the model. 95% credible intervals (CI) are presented in parentheses underneath corresponding parameter estimates.
^aSpatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
^bNon-spatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
^cSpatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
^dNon-spatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
^eSpatial random effect covariance.
^fNon-spatial random effect covariance.

ISSN: 1741-7015