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Table 2 Coefficient estimates from the selected model applied historically

From: Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria

Component Variable 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Poisson Intercept -11.42 -11.50 -11.60 -11.80 -12.20
   (-11.76, -11.09) (-11.87, -11.17) (-11.96, -11.24) (-12.22, -11.39) (-12.79, -11.69)
  Population -1.95 -1.80 -1.60 -1.62 -1.28
  Immunity (-2.40, -1.51) (-2.30, -1.31) (-2.09, -1.10) (-2.14, -1.11) (-1.92, -0.61)
Binomial Intercept -0.81 -0.54 -0.75 -1.43 -1.89
   (-1.14, -0.46) (-0.91, -0.17) (-1.16, -0.35) (-1.81, -1.02) (-2.42, -1.36)
  Population -5.24 -5.69 -5.03 -3.42 -3.17
  Immunity (-5.82, -4.65) (-6.34, -5.07) (-5.71, -4.36) (-4.18, -2.71) (-4.19, -2.20)
  Sqrt Recent 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.13 0.18
  Cases (0.06, 0.32) (0.05, 0.30) (0.05, 0.31) (0.01, 0.26) (0.04, 0.33)
  Sqrt Neighboring 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.06 0.02
  Recent Cases (0.10, 0.24) (0.11, 0.25) (0.09, 0.23) (-0.01, 0.13) (-0.07, 0.10)
  DIC 8732.4 8306.9 8107.3 7798.5 6200.7
  N 12384 10836 9288 7740 6192
Variance Bernoulli CARa 1.47 1.49 1.41 1.59 1.81
Components   (1.03, 2.03) (1.02, 2.06) (0.97, 1.98) (1.08, 2.23) (1.26, 2.52)
  Bernoulli Indb 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12
   (0.06, 0.19) (0.06, 0.19) (0.06, 0.19) (0.06, 0.19) (0.06, 0.22)
  Poisson CARc 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.61
   (0.22, 0.80) (0.24, 0.85) (0.24, 0.86) (0.25, 0.85) (0.30, 1.02)
  Poisson Indd 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.18
   (0.07, 0.22) (0.07, 0.24) (0.08, 0.23) (0.08, 0.23) (0.10, 0.28)
  Covariance CARe 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.26 0.36
   (-0.28, 0.34) (-0.31, 0.41) (-0.28, 0.38) (-0.10, 0.63) (-0.06, 0.76)
  Covariance Indf -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03
   (-0.07, 0.04) (-0.07, 0.04) (-0.07, 0.04) (-0.07, 0.04) (-0.10, 0.04)
  1. Models are estimated using data through the first half of the year that identifies the model. 95% credible intervals (CI) are presented in parentheses underneath corresponding parameter estimates.
  2. aSpatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
  3. bNon-spatial random effects in Bernoulli portion of the model.
  4. cSpatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
  5. dNon-spatial random effects in Poisson portion of the model.
  6. eSpatial random effect covariance.
  7. fNon-spatial random effect covariance.