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Table 3 Reference scenario for a flu pandemic after one initial case (no intervention). Estimates are cumulative numbers per 100 inhabitants, unless otherwise specified.

From: A 'small-world-like' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics

Outcomes Outbreak n = 114 All simulations n = 200
  Mean Minimum-Maximum Mean
Infections    
   Total 46.8 42.3–50.5 26.7
Children (0–18 years)a 76.5 71.9–79.7 43.6
Adults (19–65 years) a 39.9 34.8–44.0 22.8
Elderly (>65 years) a 25.3 20.8–30.1 14.4
Physician visits 31.2 28.0–33.7 17.8
Hospital admissions 1.74 1.30–2.30 0.99
Deaths 0.36 0.17–0.55 0.21
Lost workdaysb 137 118–150 78
  1. aPer 100 individuals of a given age
  2. bPer 100 working adults