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Table 1 Number of deaths prevented among 100,000 people in India with direct observation of therapy and increased use of case finding

From: Prioritising between direct observation of therapy and case-finding interventions for tuberculosis: use of population impact measures

 

Direct observation of therapy

Increase in TB case-finding

Population denominator

100 000

100 000

Incidence of smear-positive TB

0.00043*

0.00032†

Proportion of the diseased population eligible for the intervention: best practice goal minus current practice levels

All those identified are estimated to be subject to direct observation

0.40 (0.284)‡

Baseline risk (case fatality)

7.3% [17]

27% [17]

RRR from intervention

0.06 [12]

0.73 [17]

NEPP (deaths from TB prevented in the next year)

0.188§ (95% CI 0.014–0.294)

1.79¶ (95% CI 1.01–2.69)

  1. NEPP, number of events prevented in the population; RRR, relative risk reduction; TB, tuberculosis.
  2. The examples are based on a population of 100 000, but in reality the actual number and composition of the population to which the results are to be applied would be identified.
  3. *Based on 57% DOTS case detection rate, or 43 per 100 000 per year [13]
  4. †The estimated true incidence rate is 75 per 100 000[13], so 32 per 100 000 is the potential for case finding.
  5. ‡40% of cases identified by case detection; proportion of identified cases who will complete treatment = 71%, thus 0.40 × 0.71 = 0.284.
  6. §100 000 × 0.00043 × 0.073 × 0.06 = 0.188.
  7. ¶100 000 × 0.00032 × 0.284 × 0.27 × 0.73 = 1.79.