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Table 1 Number of deaths prevented among 100,000 people in India with direct observation of therapy and increased use of case finding

From: Prioritising between direct observation of therapy and case-finding interventions for tuberculosis: use of population impact measures

  Direct observation of therapy Increase in TB case-finding
Population denominator 100 000 100 000
Incidence of smear-positive TB 0.00043* 0.00032†
Proportion of the diseased population eligible for the intervention: best practice goal minus current practice levels All those identified are estimated to be subject to direct observation 0.40 (0.284)‡
Baseline risk (case fatality) 7.3% [17] 27% [17]
RRR from intervention 0.06 [12] 0.73 [17]
NEPP (deaths from TB prevented in the next year) 0.188§ (95% CI 0.014–0.294) 1.79¶ (95% CI 1.01–2.69)
  1. NEPP, number of events prevented in the population; RRR, relative risk reduction; TB, tuberculosis.
  2. The examples are based on a population of 100 000, but in reality the actual number and composition of the population to which the results are to be applied would be identified.
  3. *Based on 57% DOTS case detection rate, or 43 per 100 000 per year [13]
  4. †The estimated true incidence rate is 75 per 100 000[13], so 32 per 100 000 is the potential for case finding.
  5. ‡40% of cases identified by case detection; proportion of identified cases who will complete treatment = 71%, thus 0.40 × 0.71 = 0.284.
  6. §100 000 × 0.00043 × 0.073 × 0.06 = 0.188.
  7. ¶100 000 × 0.00032 × 0.284 × 0.27 × 0.73 = 1.79.