Figure 5

Number of cases by country: comparison with WHO official reports. Quantitative comparison of forecasted number of cases (conditional of the occurrence of an outbreak) with observed data. Simulated results are represented with a box plot in which lowest and highest values represent the 90% CI and the box is delimited by lower and upper quartile and reports the value of the median. Red symbols represent WHO official reports and are accompanied by the value of the number of cases for sake of clarity. (A) Agreement of model predictions with observed data: symbols are compatible with the model predictions. Broken scale and inset are used for sake of visualization. (B,C) Disagreement of model predictions with observed data: WHO data lie outside the 90% CI obtained from n = 10³ numerical simulations. Results are reported in two different plots characterized by two different scales for a better visualization.