From: Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study
Parameter | Description | Baseline value | |
---|---|---|---|
T 0 | Initial offset from 21 February (days) | 3* | |
β | Rate of transmission | 0.57* | |
L(t = 0) | Number of initial latent individuals | 10* | |
21 February + T 0-20 March | 1.00 | ||
s f (t) | Scaling factor for the rate of transmission | 21 March – 9 April | 0.37 |
10 April – 11 July | 0.06 | ||
r β | Relative infectiousness of patients at the hospital | 0.2 | |
ε -1 | Average latency period (days) | 4.6 | |
21 February + T 0-25 March | 4.84 | ||
μ -1(t) | Average period from onset of symptoms to admission (days) | 25 March – 1 April | 3.83 |
2 April – 11 July | 3.67 | ||
μ R -1 | Average period from admission to recovery (days) | 23.5 | |
μ D -1 | Average period from admission to death (days) | 35.9 | |
d | Case fatality rate | 0.2 |