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Table 1 Parameter values

From: Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study

Parameter Description   Baseline value
T 0 Initial offset from 21 February (days)   3*
β Rate of transmission   0.57*
L(t = 0) Number of initial latent individuals   10*
   21 February + T 0-20 March 1.00
s f (t) Scaling factor for the rate of transmission 21 March – 9 April 0.37
   10 April – 11 July 0.06
r β Relative infectiousness of patients at the hospital   0.2
ε -1 Average latency period (days)   4.6
   21 February + T 0-25 March 4.84
μ -1(t) Average period from onset of symptoms to admission (days) 25 March – 1 April 3.83
   2 April – 11 July 3.67
μ R -1 Average period from admission to recovery (days)   23.5
μ D -1 Average period from admission to death (days)   35.9
d Case fatality rate   0.2
  1. Baseline values for all epidemiological parameters and initial conditions. Parameters marked with an asterisk (*) are estimated by our model through the fitting procedure described in the main text. The three successive decreasing values for the μ -1model are the prompter, identification and subsequent isolation of infectious individuals [11]. A step function is also assumed for the scaling factor s f (t) of the transmission parameter β, with values taken from the estimates of the effective reproductive number R t with respect to R 0 during the early stage of SARS epidemic in Hong Kong [9]. This corresponds to the effective reduction of the reproductive number due to the application of control measures [9].