Figure 1
(A) The range of possible epidemics in Vietnam. The graph summarizes 500 simulated epidemics and resets their peaks to day zero so they can be compared on the same time axis. The red line shows the median number of infected persons. The medium gray region shows the interquartile range. The light gray region shows the 95% confidence interval based on the parameter ranges chosen via Latin hypercube sampling. The confidence band width is primarily determined by R 0. The three dotted lines show the median number of exposed animals during the epidemic. (B) Median number of new cases by day, with day zero corresponding to the epidemic peak. Stacked bar graph has dark gray bars for Ho Chi Minh City, medium gray bars for Hanoi and light gray bars for the remaining 62 provinces.