Figure 2

Illustration of the model's initialization and the results for the activity peaks in three geographical areas. (a) Intensity of the commuting between US and Mexico at the border of the two countries. (b) The 12 countries infected from Mexico used in the Monte Carlo likelihood analysis. The color scale of the arrows from red to yellow indicates the time ordering of the epidemic invasion. Panels (c), (d) and (e) show the daily incidence in Lower South America, South Pacific and North America/Western Europe, respectively. The shaded area indicates the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the peak time in the corresponding geographical region. The median incidence profiles of selected countries are shown for the two values defining the best-fit seasonality scaling factor interval.