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Figure 3 | BMC Medicine

Figure 3

From: Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Figure 3

Delay effect induced by the use of antiviral drugs for treatment with 30% case detection and drug administration. (a) Peak times of the epidemic activity in the worst-case scenario (black) and in the scenario where antiviral treatment is considered (red), for a set of countries in the Northern hemisphere. The intervals correspond to the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the peak time for the two values defining the best-fit seasonality scaling factor interval. (b, c) Incidence profiles for Spain and Germany in the worst-case scenario (black) and in the scenario where antiviral treatment is considered (red). Results are shown for αmin = 0.6 only, for the sake of visualization. A delay of about 4 weeks results from the implemented mitigation.

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