Skip to main content

Table 1 Best Estimates of the epidemiological parameters

From: Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Parameter Best Estimate Interval estimate(a) Description
R 0 1.75 1.64 to 1.88 Basic reproduction number
G t 3.6 2.2 to 5.1 Mean generation time (days)
μ-1 2.5 1.1 to 4.0 Mean infectious period (days)
αmin 0.65 0.6 to 0.7 Minimal seasonality rescaling
Assumed values:
  Assumed value at best estimate Sensitivity analysis range  
ε-1 1.1 1.1 to 2.5 Mean exposed period (days)
αmax 1.1 1.0 to 1.1 Maximum seasonality rescaling
  1. Estimates from the Monte Carlo likelihood analyses for various values of the parameter space explored. In Additional file 1 we report the complete tables corresponding to the sensitivity analysis. (a) For R 0, we report the 95% Confidence Interval. G t, μ-1 intervals are defined by the range of plausible constrained values sampled in the Monte Carlo approach that satisfy a likelihood ratio test at the 5% level. The αmin interval is the best-fit range within the minimal resolution allowed by the Monte Carlo sampling.