Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Table 3 Peak times

Region	Estimated activity peak time
North America	25 September to 9 November
Western Europe	14 October to 21 November
Lower South America	30 July to 6 September
South Pacific	28 July to 17 September

The table reports the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the pandemic activity peak time for geographical areas in the Northern and Southern hemispheres estimated for the best-fit seasonality scaling interval, 0.6 < α_min < 0.7, and for the maximum likelihood value of R ₀ found for the baseline parameters, R ₀ = 1.75. The confidence interval is obtained from the set of numerical observations of the peak time in a given region obtained from the 2,000 stochastic runs of the model. In Additional file 1 we report the results for the full sensitivity analysis. In all cases we obtain activity peak time intervals close to those reported for the baseline scenario. Peak time estimates in this table are obtained from the epidemic profile of the entire geographical region. Single country belonging to each region could have different peak time estimates (see text).

ISSN: 1741-7015