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Table 4 Daily new number of cases and epidemic sizes in several countries

From: Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Country Peak time New daily cases at the peak time (thousands) New daily cases at the peak time (% of population) Epidemic size at 15 October (% of population)
     αmin 0.6 αmin 0.7
United States 24 September to 9 November 2,983 to 3,302 1.06 to 1.17 4.99 to 7.38 23.76 to 29.96
Canada 4 October to 14 November 331 to 373 1.04 to 1.17 2.28 to 4.56 16.90 to 27.41
United Kingdom 9 October to 18 November 723 to 813 1.21 to 1.36 1.77 to 4.45 11.11 to 27.29
France 12 October to 21 November 725 to 792 1.26 to 1.38 1.83 to 3.87 10.86 to 26.40
Germany 11 October to 20 November 1,162 to 1,291 1.43 to 1.59 1.02 to 2.41 8.57 to 26.25
Italy 17 October to 23 November 793 to 867 1.39 to 1.52 0.93 to 2.20 6.71 to 22.13
Spain 8 October to 19 November 492 to 536 1.23 to 1.34 2.39 to 3.70 13.26 to 27.95
China 8 November to 11 December 14,077 to 16,207 1.16 to 1.34 0.65 to 5.34 1.51 to 9.49
Japan 13 October to 16 November 1,539 to 1,822 1.21 to 1.43 1.47 to 4.86 5.84 to 24.65
  1. Peak times of the epidemic activity, daily new number of cases predicted at peak time and % of the population, and epidemic size on 15 October are shown. Intervals refer to the 95% confidence interval (CI). After 1 year from the start of the epidemic the percentage of total population infected is close to 45% with small differences of the order of 5% across different countries.