Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Table 4 Daily new number of cases and epidemic sizes in several countries

Country	Peak time	New daily cases at the peak time (thousands)	New daily cases at the peak time (% of population)	Epidemic size at 15 October (% of population)
				α_min 0.6	α_min 0.7
United States	24 September to 9 November	2,983 to 3,302	1.06 to 1.17	4.99 to 7.38	23.76 to 29.96
Canada	4 October to 14 November	331 to 373	1.04 to 1.17	2.28 to 4.56	16.90 to 27.41
United Kingdom	9 October to 18 November	723 to 813	1.21 to 1.36	1.77 to 4.45	11.11 to 27.29
France	12 October to 21 November	725 to 792	1.26 to 1.38	1.83 to 3.87	10.86 to 26.40
Germany	11 October to 20 November	1,162 to 1,291	1.43 to 1.59	1.02 to 2.41	8.57 to 26.25
Italy	17 October to 23 November	793 to 867	1.39 to 1.52	0.93 to 2.20	6.71 to 22.13
Spain	8 October to 19 November	492 to 536	1.23 to 1.34	2.39 to 3.70	13.26 to 27.95
China	8 November to 11 December	14,077 to 16,207	1.16 to 1.34	0.65 to 5.34	1.51 to 9.49
Japan	13 October to 16 November	1,539 to 1,822	1.21 to 1.43	1.47 to 4.86	5.84 to 24.65

Peak times of the epidemic activity, daily new number of cases predicted at peak time and % of the population, and epidemic size on 15 October are shown. Intervals refer to the 95% confidence interval (CI). After 1 year from the start of the epidemic the percentage of total population infected is close to 45% with small differences of the order of 5% across different countries.

ISSN: 1741-7015