Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

Table 5 Number of hospitalizations per 100,000 persons at the activity peak in several countries

	HR based on seasonal influenza, 0.08%	HR based on multiplier method		HR based on WHO confirmed cases, 10%
		0.3%	1%
USA	2.21	8.28	27.58	275.84
Canada	2.18	8.17	27.22	272.23
UK	2.52	9.45	31.52	315.15
France	2.61	9.79	32.64	326.40
Germany	2.98	11.17	37.22	372.18
Italy	2.87	10.76	35.87	358.67
Spain	2.54	9.54	31.81	318.12
China	2.48	9.32	31.05	310.50
Japan	2.59	9.70	32.32	323.19

The estimates are obtained by considering three methods. The first assumes the average hospitalization rate (HR) observed during the seasonal influenza season. The second is a simple multiplier method in which the HR is obtained as the ratio between the World Health organization (WHO) number of confirmed hospitalizations and the cases confirmed by the WHO multiplied by a factor 10 to 30 to account for underreporting. The third method is simply the ratio of the total number of confirmed hospitalizations and the total number of confirmed cases.

ISSN: 1741-7015