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Table 1 Models for predicting risk of incident diabetesa

From: Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting




Definition of diabetes as reported

Risk predictors in the model

Aekplakorn et al. [27]



Diabetes diagnosed according to ADA criteria as FPG level ≥ 126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L) or 2-h PG level ≥ 200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L) or a previous diagnosis of diabetes

Age, sex, BMI, abdominal obesity (waist circumference), hypertension, family history of diabetes

Balkau et al. [23]



Incident cases of diabetes identified by treatment for diabetes or FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L

Men: waist circumference, smoking status, hypertension.

Women: waist circumference, family history of diabetes, hypertension.

Chen et al. [28]



Incident diabetes at follow-up defined by treatment with insulin or oral hypoglycaemic agents, FPG level ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, or 2-hPG in OGTT ≥ 11.1 mmol/L

Age, sex, ethnicity, parental history of diabetes, history of high blood glucose, use of antihypertensive medication, smoking status, physical activity, waist circumference

Chien et al. [29]



Diabetes defined by FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L or use of oral hypoglycaemic or insulin medication

Age, BMI, WBC count, and triacylglycerol, HDL cholesterol, FPG levels

Gao et al. [30]



Diabetes diagnosed according to 2006 WHO/IDF criteria. Diabetes cases were defined as those who reported a history of diabetes and treatment with glucose-lowering medication and/or FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L and/or 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L.

Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, family history of diabetes

Gupta et al. [40]


UK, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland

FPG ≥ 7 mmol/L or random glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/L at randomisation or screening visits. Self-reported history of diabetes and drug or dietary therapy for diabetes. Presence of both impaired FPG (> 6 and < 7 mmol/L) and glycosuria at randomisation or screening visits.

Age, sex, FPG, BMI, randomised group, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, use of non-coronary artery disease medication, HDL cholesterol, alcohol intake

Hippisley-Cox et al. [25]



Patients with diabetes identified by searching electronic health records for diagnosis Read code for diabetes (C10%)

Age, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking status, treated hypertension, current treatment with corticosteroids, diagnosis of CVD, social deprivation, ethnicity

Kahn et al. [31]



Participants were considered to have diabetes if they reported a history of physician-diagnosed 'diabetes (sugar in the blood)' or if their FPG level was ≥ 7.0 mmol/L (≥ 126 mg/dL), their non-FPG level was at least 11.1 mmol/L (≥ 200 mg/dL), or their 2-h PG at year 9 follow-up was ≥ 11.1 mmol/L (≥ 200 mg/dL). Additional cases of incident diabetes were identified by criteria-based abstractions of hospital records.

Diabetic mother, diabetic father, hypertension, ethnicity, age, smoking status, waist circumference (sex), height (sex), resting pulse (sex), weight (sex)

Kolberg et al. [32]



Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes was defined by 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L on OGTT or FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L

Adiponectin, C-reactive protein, ferritin, interleukin 2 receptor A, glucose, insulin

Lindström et al. [33]



Subjects not on antidiabetic drug treatment were diagnosed as having diabetes according to WHO 1999 criteria [12] if they had FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L (fasting whole blood glucose ≥ 6.1 mmol/L) and/or 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L (2-h whole blood glucose ≥ 10.0 mmol/L)

Age, BMI, waist circumference, use of blood pressure medication, history of high blood glucose, physical activity, daily consumption of vegetables

Liu et al. [61]



Diabetes was diagnosed according to ADA criteria as FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L) or OGTT ≥ 200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L). Incident diabetes was ascertained from multiple sources: self-report, FPG and OGTT results, and data on prescribing of hypoglycaemic medication at follow-up survey.

Age, hypertension, history of high blood glucose, BMI, high FPG

Schmidt et al. [34]



Incident diabetes defined by OGTT (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L or a 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L) at end of follow-up (1996 to 1998) or as report of clinical diagnosis or treatment for diabetes during follow-up period

Age, ethnicity, parental history of diabetes, FPG, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, height, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides

Schulze et al. [35]



Incident diabetes identified through August 2005 by self-reports of diabetes diagnosis, diabetes relevant medication or dietary treatment due to diabetes. All cases were verified by diagnosing physician on basis of ICD-10 criteria.

Waist circumference, height, age, hypertension, intake of red meat, intake of whole-grain bread, coffee consumption, alcohol consumption, physical activity, former smoker, current heavy smoker (≥ 20 cigarettes/day

Stern et al. [36]



Diabetes diagnosed according to WHO criteria (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L (≥ 126 mg/dL) or 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L (≥ 200 mg/dL)) [3]. Persons who reported history of diabetes diagnosed by physician and reported current use of insulin or oral antidiabetic agent were considered to have diabetes regardless of plasma glucose level.

Age, sex, ethnicity, FPG, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, BMI, family history of diabetes

Sun et al. [37]



Not defined

Sex, education level, age, current smoking status, BMI, waist circumference, family history of diabetes, hypertension, FPG

Tuomilehto et al. [38]


Canada, Germany, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Israel, Spain

Primary end point was development of type 2 diabetes, defined as a 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L

Acarbose treatment, sex, serum triglyceride level, waist circumference, FPG, height, history of CVD, diagnosed hypertension

Wilson et al. [39]



Participants characterised as developing new diabetes during follow-up if they (1) started receiving oral hypoglycaemic agents or insulin or (2) had a FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL (≥ 7.0 mmol/L)

FPG, BMI, HDL cholesterol, parental history of diabetes, triglyceride level, blood pressure

  1. aADA, American Diabetes Association; BMI, body mass index; WBC, white blood cell; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; WHO/IDF, World Health Organisation/International Diabetes Federation; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test; ICD-10, International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision; CVD, cardiovascular disease; 2-h PG, two-hour 75-g postload plasma glucose level.