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Table 1 Distribution of the final number of cases for the three network types according to the four scenarios (5000 runs, dynamic contact network of 405 participating attendees)

From: Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

      1 to 10 final cases (AR* ≤ 2.5%) 11 to 40 final cases (2.5% < AR ≤ 10%) > 40 final cases (AR > 10%)
Scenarios Parameters Networka Runs, n % of run with no secondary cases % run Mean cases, n 90% CI % run Mean cases, n 90% CI % run Mean cases, n 90% CI
REPb              
   Very short latency σ-1 = 1 days DYN 5000 47.3 18.2 2.3 1 to 6 0.7 15.9 11 to 22 33.8 208 169 to 242
   Very short infectiousness v -1 = 2 days HET 5000 46.4 17.7 2.4 1 to 7 0.8 17.9 11 to 32 35.2 210 171 to 243
   Transmission rate β = 3.10-4/s HOM 5000 41.7 11.7 2.2 1 to 6 0.2 16.6 11 to 30 46.3 285 257 to 310
   Short latency σ-1 = 2 days DYN 5000 45.3 17.0 2.2 1 to 7 0.4 18.3 11 to 38 37.3 214 178 to 246
   Short infectiousness v -1 = 4 days HET 5000 44.4 16.4 2.2 1 to 6 0.6 16.8 11 to 27 38.6 216 178 to 248
   Transmission rate β = 15.10-5/s HOM 5000 38.7 13;2 2.1 1 to 6 0.1 13.2 11 to 15 48.1 288 262 to 310
RAND-SHc              
   Very short latency σ-1 = 1 days DYN 5000 44.8 19.4 2.8 1 to 8 2.2 17.9 11 to 31 33.6 278 223 to 319
   Very short infectiousness v -1 = 2 days HET 5000 45.4 18.5 2.6 1 to 7 1.6 17.6 11 to 30 34.5 284 241 to 322
   Transmission rate β = 3.10-4/s HOM 5000 39.9 14.3 2.6 1 to 7 0.8 15.7 11 to 28 45.0 324 291 to 350
   Short latency σ-1 = 2 days DYN 5000 40.6 18.6 2.7 1 to 8 1.4 19.2 11 to 31 39.4 297 254 to 331
   Short infectiousness v -1 = 4 days HET 5000 39.5 18.0 2.7 1 to 8 1.3 16.7 11 to 30 41.2 300 259 to 333
   Transmission rate β = 15.10-5/s HOM 5000 35.9 15.7 2.5 1 to 7 0.9 17.0 11 to 31 47.5 325 293 to 352
CONSTR-SHd              
   Very short latency σ-1 = 1 days DYN 5000 45.4 17.7 2.4 1 to 7 1.0 17.0 11 to 28 35.8 240 194 to 278
   Very short infectiousness v -1 = 2 days HET 5000 46.8 16.5 2.4 1 to 7 0.8 19.0 11 to 33 35.9 245 202 to 282
   Transmission rate β = 3.10-4/s HOM 5000 39.8 13.3 2.3 1 to 6 0.7 15.4 11 to 21 46.2 308 278 to 334
   Short latency σ-1 = 2 days DYN 5000 40.9 18.2 2.3 1 to 6 0.8 16.8 11 to 34 40.2 258 215 to 292
   Short infectiousness v -1 = 4 days HET 5000 41.3 16.8 2.3 1 to 7 0.5 14.0 11 to 25 41.4 257 213 to 292
   Transmission rate β = 15.10-5/s HOM 5000 35.7 14.8 2.4 1 to 7 0.4 15.2 11 to 21 49.2 314 284 to 339
  1. aNetworks: DYN = dynamic; HET = heterogenous; HOM = homogenous.
  2. bRepetition.
  3. cRandom shuffling.
  4. dConstrained shuffling.