1 to 10 final cases (AR* ≤ 2.5%) | 11 to 40 final cases (2.5% < AR ≤ 10%) | > 40 final cases (AR > 10%) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios | Parameters | Networka | Runs, n | % of run with no secondary cases | % run | Mean cases, n | 90% CI | % run | Mean cases, n | 90% CI | % run | Mean cases, n | 90% CI |
REPb | |||||||||||||
Very short latency | σ-1 = 1 days | DYN | 5000 | 47.3 | 18.2 | 2.3 | 1 to 6 | 0.7 | 15.9 | 11 to 22 | 33.8 | 208 | 169 to 242 |
Very short infectiousness | v -1 = 2 days | HET | 5000 | 46.4 | 17.7 | 2.4 | 1 to 7 | 0.8 | 17.9 | 11 to 32 | 35.2 | 210 | 171 to 243 |
Transmission rate | β = 3.10-4/s | HOM | 5000 | 41.7 | 11.7 | 2.2 | 1 to 6 | 0.2 | 16.6 | 11 to 30 | 46.3 | 285 | 257 to 310 |
Short latency | σ-1 = 2 days | DYN | 5000 | 45.3 | 17.0 | 2.2 | 1 to 7 | 0.4 | 18.3 | 11 to 38 | 37.3 | 214 | 178 to 246 |
Short infectiousness | v -1 = 4 days | HET | 5000 | 44.4 | 16.4 | 2.2 | 1 to 6 | 0.6 | 16.8 | 11 to 27 | 38.6 | 216 | 178 to 248 |
Transmission rate | β = 15.10-5/s | HOM | 5000 | 38.7 | 13;2 | 2.1 | 1 to 6 | 0.1 | 13.2 | 11 to 15 | 48.1 | 288 | 262 to 310 |
RAND-SHc | |||||||||||||
Very short latency | σ-1 = 1 days | DYN | 5000 | 44.8 | 19.4 | 2.8 | 1 to 8 | 2.2 | 17.9 | 11 to 31 | 33.6 | 278 | 223 to 319 |
Very short infectiousness | v -1 = 2 days | HET | 5000 | 45.4 | 18.5 | 2.6 | 1 to 7 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 11 to 30 | 34.5 | 284 | 241 to 322 |
Transmission rate | β = 3.10-4/s | HOM | 5000 | 39.9 | 14.3 | 2.6 | 1 to 7 | 0.8 | 15.7 | 11 to 28 | 45.0 | 324 | 291 to 350 |
Short latency | σ-1 = 2 days | DYN | 5000 | 40.6 | 18.6 | 2.7 | 1 to 8 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 11 to 31 | 39.4 | 297 | 254 to 331 |
Short infectiousness | v -1 = 4 days | HET | 5000 | 39.5 | 18.0 | 2.7 | 1 to 8 | 1.3 | 16.7 | 11 to 30 | 41.2 | 300 | 259 to 333 |
Transmission rate | β = 15.10-5/s | HOM | 5000 | 35.9 | 15.7 | 2.5 | 1 to 7 | 0.9 | 17.0 | 11 to 31 | 47.5 | 325 | 293 to 352 |
CONSTR-SHd | |||||||||||||
Very short latency | σ-1 = 1 days | DYN | 5000 | 45.4 | 17.7 | 2.4 | 1 to 7 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 11 to 28 | 35.8 | 240 | 194 to 278 |
Very short infectiousness | v -1 = 2 days | HET | 5000 | 46.8 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 1 to 7 | 0.8 | 19.0 | 11 to 33 | 35.9 | 245 | 202 to 282 |
Transmission rate | β = 3.10-4/s | HOM | 5000 | 39.8 | 13.3 | 2.3 | 1 to 6 | 0.7 | 15.4 | 11 to 21 | 46.2 | 308 | 278 to 334 |
Short latency | σ-1 = 2 days | DYN | 5000 | 40.9 | 18.2 | 2.3 | 1 to 6 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 11 to 34 | 40.2 | 258 | 215 to 292 |
Short infectiousness | v -1 = 4 days | HET | 5000 | 41.3 | 16.8 | 2.3 | 1 to 7 | 0.5 | 14.0 | 11 to 25 | 41.4 | 257 | 213 to 292 |
Transmission rate | β = 15.10-5/s | HOM | 5000 | 35.7 | 14.8 | 2.4 | 1 to 7 | 0.4 | 15.2 | 11 to 21 | 49.2 | 314 | 284 to 339 |