Predicted vaccine efficacy and cumulative cases averted. (a,b,c) Model predicted change in vaccine efficacy against infection over time for children (>3 months and <5 years), infants (≤3 months) and infants co-administered with EPI vaccines. Vaccine efficacy against infection at year x is the vaccine efficacy against all infections during the period (x-1,x) years. (d,e,f) Model predicted change in vaccine efficacy against episodes of clinical malaria over time for children, infants, and infants co-administered with EPI vaccines. Vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria at year x is the efficacy against all episodes during the period (x-1,x) years. (g,h,i) Cumulative episodes of clinical malaria averted by RTS,S per fully vaccinated child or infant. Cases averted at year x is the expected difference in the number of clinical episodes in the period (0,x) years between a vaccinated and unvaccinated child or infant. Cases are assumed to be detected via weekly active case detection. The uncertainty associated with these estimates is presented in Additional file 2: Figure S5. EPI, expanded programme on immunization.