Index

Estimate (95%CI)


Derivation indices (n = 2,724)

Internal validation by bootstrapping (n = 2,724)

Optimismcorrected indices (n = 2,724)


Sensitivity

0.940 (0.895, 0.984)

0.958 (0.890, 0.994)

0.929 (0.881, 0.954)

Specificity

0.799 (0.783, 0.815)

0.751 (0.614, 0.885)

0.799 (0.783, 0.815)

Likelihood ratio

Positive test result

4.670 (4.124, 5.309)

3.853 (2.570, 7.747)

4.624 (3.986, 4.887)

Negative test result

0.076 (0.019, 0.134)

0.056 (0.009, 0.125)

0.090 (0.056, 0.147)

Area under ROC curve

0.966 (0.951, 0.981)

0.961 (0.952, 0.966)

0.960 (0.944, 0.976)

 Obtained from internal validation by using a bootstrap analysis in which the cohort was resampled 1,000 times with replacement.Likelihood ratio for a positive test result refers to the likelihood of assignment to the highrisk group after step 2. Likelihood ratio for a negative test result refers to the likelihood of assignment to the lowrisk group after steps 1 or 2. CI, confidence interval; ROC, receiveroperating characteristic.