The effects of size of baseline isolation effectiveness and timing of control interventions on the likelihood of observing an outbreak. Probability that no major epidemic unfolds as a function of isolation effectiveness and timing of implementation of control interventions. Epidemiological parameter values for EVD are shown in Table 1. The mean time from symptoms onset to diagnosis (γ
a0) is set at three days. The relative infectiousness of hospitalized cases is given by l
0. Population size N is set at 100,000. The baseline value of R0 is set at 1.8 by adjusting the transmission rate. After the start of interventions, the transmission rate is reduced by 80% and the relative infectiousness of hospitalized individuals is reduced by 95% (that is, l
0 = 1, l
1 = 0.05). The curves shown correspond to the mean of the results obtained from 500 model simulations. EVD, Ebola virus disease; R0, basic reproduction number.