The effects of size of baseline isolation effectiveness and diagnostic rate on the likelihood of observing an outbreak. Probability that no major epidemic unfolds as a function of isolation effectiveness and time from symptoms onset to diagnosis. Epidemiological parameter values for EVD are shown in Table 1. The mean time from symptoms onset to diagnosis (γ
a0) is set at one, two and three days. The relative infectiousness of hospitalized cases (l
0) is varied from 0 to 1. Population size N is set at 100,000. The baseline value of R0 is set at 1.8 by adjusting the transmission rate. The curves shown correspond to the mean of the results obtained from 500 model simulations. EVD, Ebola virus disease; R0, basic reproduction number.