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Figure 5 | BMC Medicine

Figure 5

From: Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease

Figure 5

Parameter uncertainty effect on future projection of all feasible interventions. Drawing only from selected areas in parameter space (see Figure 3A), the projection of incidence and mortality are divergent at baseline and with all feasible interventions. A. Parameter uncertainty (orange and purple lines) affects future projection of nearing incidence target more than all feasible interventions (green line), including shifting all patients to high-quality care, improving treatment quality, reducing delay, and active case finding. B. Implementing all feasible interventions (green line) will result in a dramatic drop in TB mortality, reaching the 2025 milestone and, from some points in parameter space, reaching the 2035 mortality target. The 2035 target (red solid line) is calculated from 2015 model estimated mean value. Orange and purple lines represent the model projection from different areas in parameter space (see Figure 3).

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