Skip to main content

Table 2 Summary of model projections for TB incidence and TB mortality from 2015-2035

From: Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease

  2025 2025 2035 2035
Change in active TB incidence Change in mortality Change in active TB incidence Change in mortality
Status quo −25% (−15, −39) −28% (−12, −45) −42% (−27, −59) −41% (−5, −64)
DOTS program
WHO targets 50% 75% 90% 95%
Basis set of interventions     
Expand DOTS to all patients −28% (−19, −42) −53% (−36, −71) −47% (−31, −63) −65% (−54, −79)
Reduce time to treatment −29% (−19,- 46) −33% (−12, −56) −48% (−35, −66) −48% (−24, −74)
Improve treatment success −33% (−24, −44) −50% (−28, −68) −49% (−35, −64) −60% (−43, −77)
Active case finding in elders −28% (−18, −42) −42% (−24, −58) −48% (−34, −64) −58% (−40, −72)
Preventative therapy in elders −63% (−53, −76) −57% (−34, −77) −79% (−69, −89) −73% (−60, −75)
Combinations     
All feasible interventions* −42% (−33, −58) −74% (−64, −85) −59% (−50, −76) −83% (−73, −94)
Active case finding and preventative therapy in elders −63% (−52, −76) −60% (−44, −79) −79% (−68, −90) −75% (−66, −86)
All interventions −71% (−63, −84) −85% (−78, −93) −84% (−78, 93) −92% (−86, −98)
  1. *All interventions excluding preventative therapy.
  2. Elders considered those > age 65 years old.
  3. 95% credible interval shown in parentheses.