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Table 2 Summary of model projections for TB incidence and TB mortality from 2015-2035

From: Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease

 

2025

2025

2035

2035

Change in active TB incidence

Change in mortality

Change in active TB incidence

Change in mortality

Status quo

−25% (−15, −39)

−28% (−12, −45)

−42% (−27, −59)

−41% (−5, −64)

DOTS program

WHO targets

50%

75%

90%

95%

Basis set of interventions

    

Expand DOTS to all patients

−28% (−19, −42)

−53% (−36, −71)

−47% (−31, −63)

−65% (−54, −79)

Reduce time to treatment

−29% (−19,- 46)

−33% (−12, −56)

−48% (−35, −66)

−48% (−24, −74)

Improve treatment success

−33% (−24, −44)

−50% (−28, −68)

−49% (−35, −64)

−60% (−43, −77)

Active case finding in elders

−28% (−18, −42)

−42% (−24, −58)

−48% (−34, −64)

−58% (−40, −72)

Preventative therapy in elders

−63% (−53, −76)

−57% (−34, −77)

−79% (−69, −89)

−73% (−60, −75)

Combinations

    

All feasible interventions*

−42% (−33, −58)

−74% (−64, −85)

−59% (−50, −76)

−83% (−73, −94)

Active case finding and preventative therapy in elders

−63% (−52, −76)

−60% (−44, −79)

−79% (−68, −90)

−75% (−66, −86)

All interventions

−71% (−63, −84)

−85% (−78, −93)

−84% (−78, 93)

−92% (−86, −98)

  1. *All interventions excluding preventative therapy.
  2. Elders considered those > age 65 years old.
  3. 95% credible interval shown in parentheses.