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Fig. 7 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 7

From: Asymptomatic transmission and the resurgence of Bordetella pertussis

Fig. 7

How does an inefficient vaccine affect situational awareness? Figure shows the percent difference in observed infections (symptomatic) from true infections (symptomatic + asymptomatic) at steady state as aP vaccination rate increases and the probability of symptomatic infection increases. Shaded area indicates a range of reasonable aP vaccination rates. At current aP vaccination coverage levels, the majority of cases are asymptomatic and therefore undetected. See Additional file 1 for model details. Parameters: birth rate (μ) = death rate (ν) = 1/75 years −1; recovery rates for symptomatic (γ s ) and asymptomatic (γ a ) = 14 days −1; baseline wP vaccination rate = 0.9; transmissibility (β) is calculated such that R0=18. Note that previously published values of R0 for pertussis range from 16–20 [71] to closer to 5 in some populations [72]

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