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Table 4 Cumulative total events averted (all ages) across 43 sub-Saharan African countries, cumulative by 5 year periods for each of the four deliveries: EPI (6–12 weeks), EPI with boosters, expanded routine (6–9 months) and expanded routine with booster

From: The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

Events averted At 5 year followup (thousands) At 10 year followup (thousands) At 15 year followup (thousands)
EPI (6-12 weeks)
Uncomplicated 72,723 (47,523-82,667) 148,991 (101,067-176,664) 204,966 (144,404-246,843)
Severe 1,757 (1,223-2,460) 2,608 (1,159-3,943) 3,020 (446-5,414)
Hospitalisations 842 (579-1243) 1,254 (527-1,955) 1476 (220-2,653)
Direct deaths 206 (126-340) 370 (152-576) 482 (149-798)
All deaths 503 (235-647) 1033 (558-1389) 1537 (879-2074)
DALYs 27,075 (12,869-34,801) 55,687 (30,489-74,302) 83,364 (48,162-111,434)
Direct DALYs 11,482 (7,159-18,740) 20,743 (9,307-31,884) 27,642 (9,999-44,694)
EPI with booster
Uncomplicated 97,337 (63,960-110,268) 217,564 (146,622-256,595) 304,518 (212,980-364,054)
Severe 2,441 (1,705-3,333) 4,087 (2,554-5,810) 4,975 (2,225-7,629)
Hospitalisations 1,168 (808-1,655) 1,960 (1,241-2,858) 2,416 (1,113-3,703)
Direct deaths 281 (173-421) 549 (332-823) 731 (384-1,134)
All deaths 622 (320-816) 1334 (771-1674) 1995 (1163-2580)
DALYs 33,413 (17,362-43,664) 71,818 (41,729-89,598) 108,255 (63,463-138,582)
Direct DALYs 15,519 (9,626-23,042) 30,580 (18,902-45,470) 41,714 (23,481-64,095)
Expanded routine (6-9 months)
Uncomplicated 58,230 (38,260-66,696) 119,426 (80,366-141,899) 162,454 (112,002-195,551)
Severe 1,528 (1,054-2,054) 2,560 (1,788-3,490) 3,239 (1,974-4,611)
Hospitalisations 727 (501-1,048) 1224 (836-1,746) 1,565 (890-2,315)
Direct deaths 162 (88-264) 306 (173-488) 406 (217-652)
All deaths 329 (160-448) 684 (375-886) 1008 (500-1293)
DALYs 17,670 (8,749-24,049) 36,881 (20,354-47,826) 54,822 (27,867-70,146)
Direct DALYs 8,955 (4,999-14,537) 17,123 (9,960-26,781) 23,251 (13,386-36,555)
Expanded routine with booster
Uncomplicated 79,300 (52,661-90,279) 179,372 (121,591-211,522) 250,819 (173,421-300,168)
Severe 2,060 (1,455-2,711) 3,744 (2,863-5,028) 4,839 (3,376-6,722)
Hospitalisations 982 (688-1,346) 1,786 (1,332-2,499) 2,323 (1,608-3,335)
Direct deaths 218 (137-324) 439 (305-655) 585 (385-883)
All deaths 418 (228-565) 909 (561-1122) 1333 (811-1634)
DALYs 22,409 (12,370-30,176) 48,905 (30,345-60,518) 72,513 (44,534-88,531)
Direct DALYs 12,012 (7,628-17,739) 24,429 (17,088-35,728) 33,367 (22,551-49,362)