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Table 5 Cumulative total events averted per 100,000 fully vaccinated individuals (all ages) across 43 sub-Saharan African countries, cumulative by 5 year periods for each of the four deliveries: EPI (6–12 weeks), EPI with boosters, expanded routine (6–9 months) and expanded routine with booster

From: The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

Event averted At 5 year followup At 10 year followup At 15 year followup
EPI (6-12 weeks)
Uncomplicated 62,110 (40,590-70,600) 61,750 (41,890-73,220) 55,010 (38,750-66,240)
Severe 1,500 (1,040-2,100) 1,080 (480-1,630) 810 (120-1,450)
Hospitalisations 720 (490-1,060) 520 (220-810) 400 (60-710)
Direct deaths 180 (110-290) 150 (60-240) 130 (40-210)
All deaths 430 (200-550) 430 (230-580) 410 (240-560)
DALYs 23,120 (10,990-29,720) 23,080 (12,640-30,790) 22,370 (12,930-29,910)
Direct DALYs 9,810 (6,110-16,010) 8,600 (3,860-13,210) 7,420 (2,680-11,990)
EPI with booster
Uncomplicated 83,130 (54,620-94,170) 90,170 (60,770-106,350) 81,720 (57,160-97,700)
Severe 2,080 (1,460-2,850) 1690 (1,060-2,410) 1,340 (600-2,050)
Hospitalisations 1,000 (690-1,410) 810 (510-1,180) 650 (300-990)
Direct deaths 240 (150-360) 230 (140-340) 200 (100-300)
All deaths 530 (270-700) 550 (320-690) 540 (310-690)
DALYs 28,540 (14,830-37,290) 29,760 (17,290-37,130) 29,050 (17,030-37,190)
Direct DALYs 13,250 (8,220-19,680) 12,670 (7,830-18,840) 11,190 (6,300-17,200)
Expanded routine (6-9 months)
Uncomplicated 66,310 (43,570-75,950) 65,990 (44,410-78,410) 58,130 (40,080-69,970)
Severe 1,740 (1200-2,340) 1,410 (990-1,930) 1160 (710-1,650)
Hospitalisations 830 (570-1,190) 680 (460-960) 560 (320-830)
Direct deaths 180 (100-300) 170 (100-270) 150 (80-230)
All deaths 370 (180-510) 380 (210-490) 360 (180-460)
DALYs 20,120 (9,960-27,390) 20,380 (11,250-26,430) 19,620 (9,970-25,100)
Direct DALYs 10,200 (5,690-16,550) 9,460 (5,500-14,800) 8,320 (4,790-13,080)
Expanded routine with booster
Uncomplicated 90,300 (59,970-102,800) 99,120 (67,190-116,890) 89,750 (62,050-107,410)
Severe 2,350 (1,660-3,090) 2,070 (1,580-2,780) 1,730 (1,210-2,410)
Hospitalisations 1,120 (780-1,530) 990 (740-1,380) 830 (580-1,190)
Direct deaths 250 (160-370) 240 (170-360) 210 (140-320)
All deaths 480 (260-640) 500 (310-620) 480 (290-580)
DALYs 25,520 (14,090-34,360) 27,020 (16,770-33,440) 25,950 (15,940-31,680)
Direct DALYs 13,680 (8,690-20,200) 13,500 (9,440-19,740) 11,940 (8,070-17,660)