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Table 4 Summary results of model

From: Extending the elderly- and risk-group programme of vaccination against seasonal influenza in England and Wales: a cost-effectiveness study

Scenario

Elderly- and risk-group

No vaccination

2–4 y

50–64 y

5–16 y

2–4 & 50–64 y

2–16 y

2–16 & 50–64 y

2–64 y

Cases mean (000s)

5,325

6,474

4,914

4,668

2,882

4,269

2,559

1,971

322

Low

3,787

4,641

3,506

3,268

1,764

3,006

1,513

1,075

30

High

7,137

8,548

6,544

6,323

4,215

5,760

3,780

3,044

816

GP mean

603,095

721,152

539,893

541,134

313,892

480,317

264,246

207,979

37,544

Low

368,255

451,303

323,362

321,755

169,135

283,818

133,495

95,343

3,383

High

916,405

1,056,782

822,924

826,488

536,822

737,721

458,143

377,580

95,980

Hospitalisations mean

11,957

16,259

10,348

10,648

7,024

9,113

5,812

4,635

1,166

Low

6,861

9,439

5,951

5,993

3,279

5,079

2,509

1,778

59

High

19,152

26,641

16,820

17,307

12,299

14,952

10,468

8,753

3,223

Death mean

1,784

2,917

1,668

1,568

1,099

1,454

985

778

179

Low

643

1,081

602

573

346

530

289

198

6

High

3,930

6,440

3,677

3,386

2,507

3,180

2,268

1,887

625

Non death QALYs mean

40,514

49,365

37,375

35,495

21,896

32,450

19,446

14,946

2,429

Low

3,852

4,752

3,555

3,353

2,054

3,087

1,794

1,337

81

High

126,421

152,964

115,649

111,676

67,157

101,865

58,597

45,899

10,242

Death associated QALYs mean

13,554

21,660

12,684

11,932

8,371

11,073

7,508

5,936

1,316

Low

5,711

8,669

5,279

4,917

2,962

4,497

2,561

1,791

52

High

28,198

44,823

26,431

24,196

17,590

22,877

16,155

13,454

4,465

QALYs loss total mean

54,068

71,025

50,059

47,426

30,267

43,523

26,953

20,882

3,745

Low

13,253

19,358

12,387

11,767

7,954

10,915

6,940

5,336

380

High

141,995

177,528

131,318

125,105

76,379

114,248

68,559

52,870

11,601

Mean programme cost (£K)

134,817

–

149,012

187,054

191,283

201,248

205,477

257,714

418,988

Low

105,494

–

117,032

147,680

151,915

159,480

163,653

206,070

335,773

High

163,856

–

180,742

225,997

230,463

242,665

247,481

309,787

502,957

HC cost mean (£K)

32,607

40,664

28,886

29,184

17,669

25,615

14,788

11,687

2,378

Low

18,591

24,017

16,432

16,079

8,932

14,163

7,101

4,961

173

High

54,172

66,369

48,275

48,485

31,087

42,387

26,175

21,276

6,130

Cost total mean (£K)

167,425

40,664

177,898

216,238

208,952

226,863

220,265

269,401

421,366

Low

124,085

24,017

133,464

163,758

160,847

173,642

170,753

211,031

335,946

High

218,027

66,369

229,018

274,482

261,551

285,052

273,656

331,063

509,087

  1. The average annual number of influenza-like illness (febrile) cases, GP consultations, etc. are shown along with measures of their distribution for each of the strategies (columns)
  2. GP, General practitioner; QALY, Quality-adjusted life year