Scenario | Elderly- and risk-group | No vaccination | 2–4 y | 50–64 y | 5–16 y | 2–4 & 50–64 y | 2–16 y | 2–16 & 50–64 y | 2–64 y |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases mean (000s) | 5,325 | 6,474 | 4,914 | 4,668 | 2,882 | 4,269 | 2,559 | 1,971 | 322 |
Low | 3,787 | 4,641 | 3,506 | 3,268 | 1,764 | 3,006 | 1,513 | 1,075 | 30 |
High | 7,137 | 8,548 | 6,544 | 6,323 | 4,215 | 5,760 | 3,780 | 3,044 | 816 |
GP mean | 603,095 | 721,152 | 539,893 | 541,134 | 313,892 | 480,317 | 264,246 | 207,979 | 37,544 |
Low | 368,255 | 451,303 | 323,362 | 321,755 | 169,135 | 283,818 | 133,495 | 95,343 | 3,383 |
High | 916,405 | 1,056,782 | 822,924 | 826,488 | 536,822 | 737,721 | 458,143 | 377,580 | 95,980 |
Hospitalisations mean | 11,957 | 16,259 | 10,348 | 10,648 | 7,024 | 9,113 | 5,812 | 4,635 | 1,166 |
Low | 6,861 | 9,439 | 5,951 | 5,993 | 3,279 | 5,079 | 2,509 | 1,778 | 59 |
High | 19,152 | 26,641 | 16,820 | 17,307 | 12,299 | 14,952 | 10,468 | 8,753 | 3,223 |
Death mean | 1,784 | 2,917 | 1,668 | 1,568 | 1,099 | 1,454 | 985 | 778 | 179 |
Low | 643 | 1,081 | 602 | 573 | 346 | 530 | 289 | 198 | 6 |
High | 3,930 | 6,440 | 3,677 | 3,386 | 2,507 | 3,180 | 2,268 | 1,887 | 625 |
Non death QALYs mean | 40,514 | 49,365 | 37,375 | 35,495 | 21,896 | 32,450 | 19,446 | 14,946 | 2,429 |
Low | 3,852 | 4,752 | 3,555 | 3,353 | 2,054 | 3,087 | 1,794 | 1,337 | 81 |
High | 126,421 | 152,964 | 115,649 | 111,676 | 67,157 | 101,865 | 58,597 | 45,899 | 10,242 |
Death associated QALYs mean | 13,554 | 21,660 | 12,684 | 11,932 | 8,371 | 11,073 | 7,508 | 5,936 | 1,316 |
Low | 5,711 | 8,669 | 5,279 | 4,917 | 2,962 | 4,497 | 2,561 | 1,791 | 52 |
High | 28,198 | 44,823 | 26,431 | 24,196 | 17,590 | 22,877 | 16,155 | 13,454 | 4,465 |
QALYs loss total mean | 54,068 | 71,025 | 50,059 | 47,426 | 30,267 | 43,523 | 26,953 | 20,882 | 3,745 |
Low | 13,253 | 19,358 | 12,387 | 11,767 | 7,954 | 10,915 | 6,940 | 5,336 | 380 |
High | 141,995 | 177,528 | 131,318 | 125,105 | 76,379 | 114,248 | 68,559 | 52,870 | 11,601 |
Mean programme cost (£K) | 134,817 | – | 149,012 | 187,054 | 191,283 | 201,248 | 205,477 | 257,714 | 418,988 |
Low | 105,494 | – | 117,032 | 147,680 | 151,915 | 159,480 | 163,653 | 206,070 | 335,773 |
High | 163,856 | – | 180,742 | 225,997 | 230,463 | 242,665 | 247,481 | 309,787 | 502,957 |
HC cost mean (£K) | 32,607 | 40,664 | 28,886 | 29,184 | 17,669 | 25,615 | 14,788 | 11,687 | 2,378 |
Low | 18,591 | 24,017 | 16,432 | 16,079 | 8,932 | 14,163 | 7,101 | 4,961 | 173 |
High | 54,172 | 66,369 | 48,275 | 48,485 | 31,087 | 42,387 | 26,175 | 21,276 | 6,130 |
Cost total mean (£K) | 167,425 | 40,664 | 177,898 | 216,238 | 208,952 | 226,863 | 220,265 | 269,401 | 421,366 |
Low | 124,085 | 24,017 | 133,464 | 163,758 | 160,847 | 173,642 | 170,753 | 211,031 | 335,946 |
High | 218,027 | 66,369 | 229,018 | 274,482 | 261,551 | 285,052 | 273,656 | 331,063 | 509,087 |