Table 3 Cox regression analysis of risk of recrudescence by day 42

Univariable model

Day 7 lumefantrine concentration (log₂)

 All^b

2,528

70

0.64 (0.55 to 0.74)

<0.001

 Venous plasma

1,336

46

0.56 (0.46 to 0.69)

<0.001

 Capillary blood^b

663

21

0.68 (0.54 to 0.84)

0.001

 Venous blood^b

529

3

0.84 (0.16 to 4.34)

0.559

Age (years)

2,528

70

1.01 (0.99 to 1.04)

0.22

Age category^b

  < 1 year

73

2

0.32 (0.06 to 1.59)

0.162

 1–4 years

1,004

29

0.55 (0.23 to 1.31)

0.177

 5–11 years

540

4

0.39 (0.13 to 1.21)

0.103

 12+ years

911

32

Reference

Sex (female)

2,528 (1,157)

70 (32)

1.33 (0.82 to 2.16)

0.254

Baseline parasitemia (log₁₀)

2,527

70

1.85 (1.33 to 2.76)

0.003

Baseline temperature (°C)

2,384

56

1.17 (0.93 to 1.46)

0.181

Baseline fever^c

2,384 (1,049)

56 (36)

1.49 (0.84 to 2.64)

0.177

Baseline gametocytemia

2,197 (109)

53 (4)

1.69 (0.58 to 4.94)

0.335

Hemoglobin^b

2,189

57

1.01 (0.90 to 1.14)

0.857

Moderate anemia

2,279 (1,022)

58 (25)

0.78 (0.44 to 1.39)

0.402

Severe anemia

2,279 (138)

58 (6)

1.23 (0.51 to 2.99)

0.642

WAZ

1,076

34

0.92 (0.70 to 1.21)

0.538

Underweight ^d

1,076

34

1.36 (0.61 to 3.03)

0.457

Palpable spleen

1,732 (272)

35 (8)

1.25 (0.56 to 2.78)

0.581

Palpable liver

1,732 (102)

35 (5)

1.19 (0.43 to 3.29)

0.732

<Six-dose artemether-lumefantrine regimen

2,528 (142)

70 (15)

5.32 (1.97 to 14.39)

<0.001

D2 Parasite positive count

1,901 (179)

47 (17)

3.12 (1.55 to 6.25)

0.001

D3 Parasite positive count

2,153 (23)

51 (5)

5.29 (1.78 to 15.76)

0.003

Log of PRR48^e

1,897

47

0.86 (0.76 to 0.97)

0.011

Early parasitological response^f

 Fast

1,193

36

Reference

 Slow

65

8

2.98 (1.25 to 7.07)

0.014

 Unknown

1,270

26

1.05 (0.54 to 2.06)

0.879

Transmission intensity areas (TIA)^b

 Very low

66

9

6.52 (1.28 to 33.23)

0.024

 Low

500

23

1.74 (0.59 to 5.09)

0.314

 Moderate

738

12

0.83 (0.23 to 2.94)

0.769

 High

1,224

26

Reference

Multivariable model^g

Day 7 lumefantrine concentration (log₂)

2,527

70

0.63 (0.54 to 0.73)

<0.001

Baseline parasitemia (log₁₀)

2,527

70

1.87 (1.22 to 2.87)

0.004

Location/transmission intensity area (TIA)

 Cambodia

77

10

13.44 (2.51 to 72.02)

0.002

 Very low TIA

66

9

5.63 (1.10 to 28.92)

0.039

 Low TIA

423

13

1.32 (0.34 to 5.07)

0.69

 High/moderate TIA

  < 1 year

71

2

0.80 (0.14 to 4.73)

0.807

 1–4 years

973

31

1.37 (0.46 to 4.11)

0.578

 5+ years

917

5

Reference

<Six-dose artemether-lumefantrine regimen

2,527

70

4.38 (1.54 to 12.49)

0.006

Early parasitological response

 Fast

1,193

36

Reference

 Slow

65

8

2.72 (1.04 to 7.16)

0.042

 Unknown

1,269

26

1.02 (0.51 to 2.04)

0.964