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Table 2 Final dementia risk model for cohort aged 60–79 years after backwards elimination (from development cohort)

From: Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data

  Coefficienta 95 % CI HRa 95 % CI
Age, per year increase 0.209 0.200 to 0.219 1.23 1.22 to 1.25
Age2, per unit increase −0.003 −0.004 to −0.003 0.997 0.996 to 0.997
Gender (female vs. male) 0.129 0.074 to 0.183 1.14 1.08 to 1.20
Calendar year, per year increase 0.045 0.035 to 0.054 1.05 1.04 to 1.06
Local area deprivation score (quintile)     
1 (=least deprived) 0   1  
2 0.013 −0.063 to 0.090 1.01 0.94 to 1.09
3 0.118 0.041 to 0.194 1.13 1.04 to 1.22
4 0.202 0.123 to 0.280 1.22 1.13 to 1.32
5 (=most deprived) 0.226 0.138 to 0.314 1.25 1.15 to 1.37
BMI (kg/m2), per unit increase −0.062 −0.069 to −0.054 0.94 0.93 to 0.95
BMI2, per unit increase 0.003 0.002 to 0.003 1.003 1.002 to 1.003
Current anti-hypertensive use (yes vs. no) −0.132 −0.190 to −0.074 0.88 0.83 to 0.93
Smoking status     
Never 0   1  
Past −0.068 −0.127 to −0.009 0.93 0.88 to 0.99
Current −0.087 −0.168 to −0.005 0.92 0.85 to 1.00
History of alcohol problem (yes vs. no) 0.444 0.287 to 0.600 1.56 1.33 to 1.82
History of diabetes (yes vs. no) 0.287 0.205 to 0.368 1.33 1.23 to 1.45
Current depression/use of anti-depressants (yes vs. no) 0.834 0.770 to 0.897 2.30 2.16 to 2.45
History of stroke or transient ischemic attack (yes vs. no) 0.577 0.500 to 0.654 1.78 1.65 to 1.92
History of atrial fibrillation (yes vs. no) 0.221 0.120 to 0.322 1.25 1.13 to 1.38
Current aspirin use (yes vs. no) 0.253 0.189 to 0.316 1.29 1.21 to 1.37
  1. aCoefficients and hazard ratios (HRs) are obtained by building Cox models separately within each of the 10 imputation datasets and then combining the results using Rubin’s rules. Baseline 5-year survival function, So(5) = 0.9969
  2. Age2 = age-squared i.e. the hazard ratio corresponds to the relative increase in hazard per unit increase in the quadratic function of age