Table 2 Final dementia risk model for cohort aged 60–79 years after backwards elimination (from development cohort)

Age, per year increase

0.209

0.200 to 0.219

1.23

1.22 to 1.25

Age², per unit increase

−0.003

−0.004 to −0.003

0.997

0.996 to 0.997

Gender (female vs. male)

0.129

0.074 to 0.183

1.14

1.08 to 1.20

Calendar year, per year increase

0.045

0.035 to 0.054

1.05

1.04 to 1.06

Local area deprivation score (quintile)

1 (=least deprived)

0

1

2

0.013

−0.063 to 0.090

1.01

0.94 to 1.09

3

0.118

0.041 to 0.194

1.13

1.04 to 1.22

4

0.202

0.123 to 0.280

1.22

1.13 to 1.32

5 (=most deprived)

0.226

0.138 to 0.314

1.25

1.15 to 1.37

BMI (kg/m²), per unit increase

−0.062

−0.069 to −0.054

0.94

0.93 to 0.95

BMI², per unit increase

0.003

0.002 to 0.003

1.003

1.002 to 1.003

Current anti-hypertensive use (yes vs. no)

−0.132

−0.190 to −0.074

0.88

0.83 to 0.93

Smoking status

Never

0

1

Past

−0.068

−0.127 to −0.009

0.93

0.88 to 0.99

Current

−0.087

−0.168 to −0.005

0.92

0.85 to 1.00

History of alcohol problem (yes vs. no)

0.444

0.287 to 0.600

1.56

1.33 to 1.82

History of diabetes (yes vs. no)

0.287

0.205 to 0.368

1.33

1.23 to 1.45

Current depression/use of anti-depressants (yes vs. no)

0.834

0.770 to 0.897

2.30

2.16 to 2.45

History of stroke or transient ischemic attack (yes vs. no)

0.577

0.500 to 0.654

1.78

1.65 to 1.92

History of atrial fibrillation (yes vs. no)

0.221

0.120 to 0.322

1.25

1.13 to 1.38

Current aspirin use (yes vs. no)

0.253

0.189 to 0.316

1.29

1.21 to 1.37