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Table 4 Final dementia risk model for cohort aged 80–95 years after backwards elimination (development cohort)

From: Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data

  Coefficienta 95 % CI HRa 95 % CI
Age, per year increase 0.055 0.047 to 0.062 1.06 1.05 to 1.06
Age2, per unit increase −0.005 −0.007 to −0.004 0.995 0.993 to 0.996
Gender (female v male) 0.160 0.104 to 0.216 1.17 1.11 to 1.24
Calendar year, per year increase 0.074 0.063 to 0.084 1.08 1.07 to 1.09
BMI (kg/m2), per unit increase −0.050 −0.063 to-0.036 0.95 0.94 to 0.96
Current anti-hypertensive use (yes vs. no) −0.249 −0.301 to −0.197 0.78 0.74 to 0.82
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg), per unit increase −0.006 −0.008 to −0.005 0.994 0.992 to 0.995
Lipid ratio (per unit increase) 0.042 −0.055 to 0.138 1.04 0.95 to 1.15
Smoking status     
Never 0   1  
Past −0.178 −0.233 to −0.122 0.84 0.79 to 0.89
Current −0.134 −0.229 to −0.039 0.88 0.80 to 0.96
History of alcohol problem (yes vs. no) 0.256 −0.009 to 0.521 1.29 0.99 to 1.68
History of diabetes (yes vs. no) 0.183 0.102 to 0.264 1.20 1.11 to 1.30
History of stroke or transient ischemic attack (yes vs. no) 0.242 0.177 to 0.306 1.27 1.19 to 1.36
History of atrial fibrillation (yes vs. no) 0.057 −0.018 to 0.132 1.06 0.98 to 1.14
Current depression/use of anti-depressants (yes vs. no) 0.400 0.335 to 0.465 1.49 1.40 to 1.59
Current anxiety/use of anxiolytics (yes vs. no) 0.136 0.034 to 0.237 1.15 1.04 to 1.27
Current NSAID use, excluding aspirin (yes vs. no) −0.157 −0.237 to −0.078 0.86 0.79 to 0.93
Current aspirin use (yes vs. no) 0.092 0.037 to 0.147 1.10 1.04 to 1.16
  1. aCoefficients and hazard ratios (HRs) are obtained by building Cox models separately within each of the 10 imputation datasets and then combining the results using Rubin’s rules. Baseline 5 year survival function, So(5) = −0.9277
  2. Age2 = age-squared i.e. the hazard ratio corresponds to the relative increase in hazard per unit increase in the quadratic function of age