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Table 5 Risk classification using the 60–79 years dementia risk algorithm when applied to validation cohort

From: Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data

Cut off for high risk

Sensitivity

Specificity

PPV

NPV

Patients classified as high risk, n (%)

Patients classified as high risk who develop dementia, n (%)

Patients classified as low risk, n (%)

Patients classified as low risk who develop dementia, n (%)

1 %

77.70

73.05

2.14

99.77

61,803 (27.33)

1,320 (2.14)

164,337 (72.67)

379 (0.23)

2 %

58.36

85.15

2.89

99.63

34,323 (15.18)

992 (2.89)

191,817 (84.82)

707 (0.37)

5 %

19.39

97.03

4.71

99.38

6,989 (3.09)

329 (4.71)

219,151 (96.91)

1,370 (0.62)

10 %

5.62

99.52

8.20

99.29

1,164 (0.51)

95 (8.2)

224,976 (99.49)

1,604 (0.71)

20 %

0.72

99.96

10.87

99.25

113 (0.05)

12 (10.87)

226,027 (99.95)

1,687 (0.75)

  1. PPV, Positive predictive value; NPV, Negative predictive value
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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