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Fig. 3 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 3

From: Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

Fig. 3

Mf breakpoints as a function of baseline community annual biting rate (ABR) and microfilaria (mf) prevalence. The mf breakpoints estimated in each site are shown as average values with 95 % CIs, calculated as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the breakpoint distribution in each site, and are plotted against the observed ABRs in each site; filled and open circles, respectively, represent values for the culicine and anopheline settings. The data in (a, b) and (c, d), respectively, represent the mf breakpoints estimated at the observed site-specific ABRs and the corresponding estimated threshold biting rates (TBRs). Both types of mf breakpoints were negatively correlated with ABR, with the fitted dashed lines indicating that overall these data follow a power-law function: f(x) = ax b, with x representing the biting rate values on the x-axis, and f(x) the mf breakpoints on the y-axis. The term a is a constant while b is the power-law exponent, with fitted values of (a, b) as follows: (a) (20.54, −0.5112); (b) (1.335, −0.2184); (c) (54.25, −0.3498); and (d) (4.251, −0.104). All four associated p values were <0.01. The set of mf breakpoints plotted in each graph were calculated using the best-fitting parameter vectors obtained from model fits to the baseline mf age-profile of each study site. In the plots, individual sites are indicated by their first two letters, except for “Mao” in the culicine settings, in order to distinguish it from “Ma” used for “Mambrui”. Inset plots are provided to clarify the variations in the breakpoint values estimated for sites with approximately the same baseline ABR values, which were obscured in the respective main plots

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