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Fig. 8 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 8

From: Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

Fig. 8

Contribution of site-specific parameter vectors to predictions of the superensemble model. The simulation of mf age-prevalence curves at endemic equilibrium by the vector-specific LF regional superensemble model (see text) given the baseline ABR of each study site are portrayed for each of five PNG anopheline (a, b) and five Southeast Asian culicine (c, d) study settings. The curves represent the sets of mf age-prevalence curves, individually color-coded, generated by the resultant S (=5) site-specific parameter vectors comprising the respective regional model in each site. In each site, we count the number n i of the best-fit parameter vectors (belonging to the ith site-specific set of the superensemble) that are able to reproduce the observed mf age-prevalence in each site (i.e. fall within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles (shown by the dashed curves) of the site-specific mf age-prevalence data), in order to quantify the proportional contributions (i.e. \( \frac{n_i}{N} \) where N = ∑n i ) of individual members, S, of the global model to each site-specific prediction. The Shannon index, \( H=-{\displaystyle {\sum}_{i=1}^S\left(\frac{n_i}{N} \ln \frac{n_i}{N}\right)} \) was used to measure the diversity in the superensemble parameter vectors as a result of the relative contributions of these S members to each regional prediction, with a higher diversity index denoting a greater contribution of site-specific parameter vectors arising from different study settings to the regional prediction of infection in a site. The bars in the grouped-bar plots in (b, d) depict the percentage contribution (i.e. \( \frac{n_i}{N}\times 100 \) of each S site-specific parameter member to the regional ensemble model predictions of age-infection in each of the anopheline (b) and culicine (d) settings, with the values of the corresponding Shannon index (H) displayed overhead

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