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# Table 3 The best model

Cointegration equation Cointegration equation 1
Lnprivate (−1) 1
Lnpublic (−1) −0.81
(0.14)
[−5.81]
Lnsale (−1) 0.12
(0.20)
[0.63]
Intercept −2.55
Error correction D(lnprivate) D(lnpublic) D(lnsale)
Cointegration equation 1 −0.10 0.02 −0.00
(0.03) (0.01) (0.01)
[−3.58] [2.70] [−0.49]
D(lnprivate(−1)) −0.20 −0.02 0.01
(0.06) (0.01) (0.01)
[−3.45] [−1.72] [0.87]
D(lnpublic(−1)) 0.29 0.04 −0.01
(0.27) (0.06) (0.06)
[1.08] [0.67] [−0.16]
D(lnsale(−1)) 0.28 0.07 0.15
(0.26) (0.06) (0.06)
[1.10] [1.09] [2.52]
Intercept 0.05 0.04 0.06
(0.03) (0.01) (0.01)
[1.71] [6.22] [7.72]
R2 0.12 0.04 0.03
Adj. R2 0.10 0.02 0.01
Sum sq. resids 27.52 1.57 1.56
SE equation 0.34 0.08 0.08
F-statistic 8.00 2.57 1.87
Log likelihood −78.92 279.44 280.00
IC 0.67 −2.20 −2.20
Schwarz SC 0.74 −2.13 −2.13
Mean dependent 0.07 0.05 0.07
SD dependent 0.35 0.08 0.08
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 4.48 × 10–06
Determinant resid covariance 4.22 × 10–06
Log likelihood 482.77
Akaike information criterion −3.72
Schwarz criterion −3.46
1. Standard errors in () & t-statistics in []
2. Sample adjusted for a period between 1984 and 2008
3. There are 250 observations included after adjustments
4. D(lnprivate): first difference of log private sector expenditure; D(lnpublic): first difference of log public sector expenditure; D(lnsale): first difference of log sales; Lnprivate (−1): log private sector expenditure with one year lag; Lnpublic (−1): log public sector expenditure with one year lag; Lnsale (−1): log sales with one year lag; D(lnprivate(−1)): first difference of log private expenditure with one year lag; D(lnpublic(−1)): first difference of log public expenditure with one year lag; D(lnsale(−1)): first difference of sales with one year lag