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Table 1 Predictors of an unfavourable outcome for all data (adjusted for treatment) and within each treatment arm. Prediction models fitted all factors significant in the “all data” model (p <0.05, likelihood ratio test) with the addition of TTP on MGIT which was significant in the “ethambutol arm” model. Factors not listed in this table were not significant in any model

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Multivariable odds ratio (95 % CI) All data Control arm patients only Isoniazid arm patients only Ethambutol arm patients only
Control Reference    
Isoniazid 1.81 (1.18, 2.78)    
Ethambutol 2.88 (1.92, 4.33)    
  p <0.001    
BMI per 1 kg/m2 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) 0.93 (0.82, 1.05) 0.95 (0.85, 1.05) 0.90 (0.83, 0.99)
p = 0.004 p = 0.193 p = 0.286 p = 0.027
History of smoking 1.63 (1.15, 2.31) 2.12 (0.99, 4.53) 2.34 (1.23, 4.46) 1.15 (0.69, 1.92)
p = 0.005 p = 0.046 p = 0.007 p = 0.592
HIV positive 2.93 (1.69, 5.08) 2.64 (0.90, 7.78) 1.95 (0.72, 5.28) 4.46 (1.79, 11.09)
p <0.001 p = 0.100 p = 0.210 p = 0.002
TTP on MGIT (per 0.1 log10(day)) 0.97 (0.90, 1.05) 1.17 (1.03, 1.32)a 1.02 (0.89, 1.17) 0.84 (0.74, 0.95)
p = 0.439 p = 0.024 p = 0.789 p = 0.003
Male gender 1.69 (1.13, 2.53) 1.10 (0.48, 2.55) 1.94 (0.94, 3.98) 2.09 (1.13, 3.85)
p = 0.009 p = 0.817 p = 0.060 p = 0.014
Cavities on X-ray 1.93 (1.22, 3.05) 1.62 (0.62, 4.19) 2.82 (1.15, 6.94) 1.75 (0.89, 3.41)
p = 0.003 p = 0.302 p = 0.013 p = 0.091
  1. aThis association (p = 0.024) indicates a higher probability of an unfavourable outcome with higher TTP on MGIT, indicating a lower bacillary load which is biologically counter-intuitive. This is a modest odds ratio with a fairly wide confidence interval—similar results are seen in the univariable model. Due to the multiplicity in the number of tests done to evaluate baseline predictors this is therefore likely a chance finding