Skip to main content

Table 2 Associations of smoking status and time since smoking cessation with total, lung, head and neck cancer incidence and mortalitya,b

From: Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

Cancer site Smoking exposure Cancer incidence Cancer mortality
Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI) Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI)
Total cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 43449 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 13398 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 64797 1.15 (1.09 ; 1.21) *** 2.67 (1.65 ; 3.70) ** 368808 24365 1.39 (1.26 ; 1.54) *** 4.03 (2.85 ; 5.22) ***
 Current 128615 26007 1.44 (1.28 ; 1.63) *** 7.92 (5.58 ; 10.3) *** 140672 13450 2.19 (1.83 ; 2.63) *** 9.92 (7.84 ; 12.0) ***
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 2704 0.90 (0.86 ; 0.94) -1.62 (-2.41; -0.83) 22693 1351 0.83 (0.77 ; 0.89) -2.09 (-2.86 ; -1.31)
 10–19 years 18511 2613 0.80 (0.74 ; 0.88) ** -4.01 (-5.73; -2.29) ** 21361 1145 0.66 (0.59 ; 0.73) -4.81 (-6.01 ; -3.62)
 ≥20 years 24651 3904 0.75 (0.70 ; 0.81) ** -5.27 (-6.69; -3.86) * 28057 1507 0.52 (0.47 ; 0.58) * -7.54 (-8.59 ; -6.49)
 P linear trend    <0.0001     <0.0001  
Lung cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 923 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 863 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 6785 4.06 (3.13 ; 5.26) ** 16.4 (12.2 ; 20.7) *** 368808 6967 4.10 (3.14 ; 5.36) *** 15.3 (11.7; 18.9) **
 Current 128615 6333 13.1 (9.90 ; 17.3) *** 30.0 (24.1 ; 35.9) *** 140672 6165 11.5 (8.21 ; 16.1) *** 26.2 (21.5; 30.8) ***
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 306 0.60 (0.48 ; 0.73) * -5.26 (-7.91; -2.61) * 22693 373 0.70 (0.56 ; 0.87) ** -3.45 (-5.33 ; -1.56)
 10–19 years 18511 191 0.33 (0.25 ; 0.44) ** -12.3 (-16.4; -8.20) ** 21361 233 0.40 (0.31 ; 0.51) * -8.99 (-12.2 ; -5.77) **
 ≥20 years 24651 139 0.15 (0.12 ; 0.19) -21.9 (-28.1; -15.8) ** 28057 168 0.18 (0.14 ; 0.24) * -17.0 (-21.3 ; -12.7) **
 P linear trend    <0.0001     <0.0001  
Head and neck cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 636 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 155 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 1503 1.73 (1.57 ; 1.92) 7.77 (4.24 ; 11.3) 368808 388 2.10 (1.70 ; 2.61) 9.01 (4.36 ; 13.6)
 Current 128615 1051 2.89 (1.98 ; 4.21) ** 9.10 (-2.34 ; 20.5)*** 140672 359 3.74 (2.38 ; 5.89) 14.0 (4.53 ; 23.5) **
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 64 1.08 (0.80 ; 1.47) -0.77 (-3.97 ; 3.66) 22693 22 1.35 (0.75 ; 2.44) -2.64 (-4.11 ; 9.40)
 10–19 years 18511 33 0.61 (0.40 ; 0.92) -5.71 (-15.4 ; 1.19) 21361 14 1.35 (0.62 ; 2.90) 3.45 (-7.93 ; 14.8)
 ≥20 years 24651 53 0.55 (0.34 ; 0.91) -2.75 (-9.26 ; 3.76) 28057 20 0.58 (0.31 ; 1.07) -3.59 (-10.1 ; 2.91)
 P linear trend    0.0039     0.0676  
  1. aNumbers in bold denote statistical significance (P < 0.05). Heterogeneity was regarded as negligible if not significant (P < 0.05) or I2 < 30 %. Otherwise, if significant (P < 0.05), it was classified as * moderate (30 % < I2 < 50 %), ** substantial (50 % < I2 < 75 %), or *** considerable (I2 > 75 %)
  2. bCohort-specific Hazard Ratios (HRs) and Rate Advancement Periods (RAPs) were summarized with meta-analyses using random effects models. HRs and RAPs were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, education, vigorous physical activity, history of diabetes, and alcohol consumption
  3. cThe total number of participants for the analyses with cancer incidence is smaller because the participants with a diagnosis of cancer before baseline were excluded. Furthermore, some cohorts (HAPIEE and SENECA cohorts) had no cancer incidence data available for the analyses
  4. dFor the analyses with the categories of years since smoking cessation, the data from the NIH-AARP and MORGAM FI were not included because of the different categories employed
  5. HAPIEE Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe, SENECA Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly a Concerned Action, NIH-AARP National Institute of Health – American Association of Retired Persons, MORGAM Monica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph, which included the cohort MORGAM FI FINRISK Study (Finland)