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Table 3 Associations of smoking status and time since smoking cessation with colorectal, gastric and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortalitya,b

From: Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

Cancer site

Smoking exposure

Cancer incidence

Cancer mortality

Totalc

Cases

HR (95 % CI)

RAP (95 % CI)

Totalc

Cases

HR (95 % CI)

RAP (95 % CI)

Colorectal cancer

Smoking status

 Never

321984

4359

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

346559

1702

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

 Former

353311

6273

1.20 (1.15 ; 1.25)

2.62 (2.00 ; 3.24)

368808

2264

1.22 (1.13 ; 1.31)

2.19 (1.35 ; 3.02)

 Current

128615

2064

1.20 (1.07 ; 1.34) *

3.64 (2.81 ; 4.46)

140672

912

1.35 (1.16 ; 1.58)

4.61 (3.53 ; 5.68)

Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d

 ≤9 years

19049

318

1.00 (0.87 ; 1.16)

-0.11 (-1.94 ; 1.72)

22693

152

1.07 (0.86 ; 1.32)

0.22 (-2.09 ; 2.53)

 10–19 years

18511

365

1.11 (0.97 ; 1.27)

1.16 (-0.53 ; 2.84)

21361

167

1.07 (0.87 ; 1.31)

0.31 (-1.83 ; 2.45)

 

 ≥20 years

24651

514

0.88 (0.78 ; 1.00)

-1.95 (-3.58 ; -0.32)

28057

205

0.76 (0.63 ; 0.93)

-3.18 (-5.24 ; -1.11)

 

 P linear trend

  

0.1885

   

0.0134

 

Gastric cancer

Smoking status

 Never

321984

598

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

346559

463

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

 Former

353311

880

1.18 (0.95; 1.46)

1.80 (-0.31 ; 3.91)

368808

631

1.31 (1.02 ; 1.68)

2.08 (0.02 ; 4.14)

 Current

128615

388

1.74 (1.50; 2.02)

5.62 (3.85 ; 7.39)

140672

302

1.73 (1.36 ; 2.19)

5.22 (3.08 ; 7.36)

Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d

 ≤9 years

19049

54

0.85 (0.60 ; 1.20)

-3.02 (-6.43 ; 0.40)

22693

61

1.13 (0.80 ; 1.58)

-0.59 (-3.90 ; 2.72)

 10–19 years

18511

51

0.68 (0.41 ; 1.12)

-3.48 (-7.00 ; 0.05)

21361

45

0.72 (0.46 ; 1.14)

-2.62 (-6.57 ; 1.32)

 

 ≥20 years

24651

77

0.69 (0.51 ; 0.93)

-2.42 (-5.08 ; 0.24)

28057

77

0.87 (0.64 ; 1.19)

-1.89 (-5.25 ; 1.47)

 

 P linear trend

  

0.0461

   

0.2355

 

Pancreatic cancer

Smoking status

 Never

321984

921

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

346559

1186

1.00 (reference)

0.00 (reference)

 Former

353311

1216

1.13 (0.95 ; 1.35)

1.45 (0.23 ; 2.67)

368808

1609

1.19 (0.98 ; 1.45)

1.85 (0.85 ; 2.86)

 Current

128615

635

1.90 (1.48 ; 2.43) *

7.57 (4.31 ; 10.8) *

140672

808

2.19 (1.74 ; 2.75) **

8.50 (6.45 ; 10.5)

Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d

 ≤9 years

19049

74

0.83 (0.62 ; 1.11)

-2.16 (-6.01 ; 1.69)

22693

93

0.72 (0.56 ; 0.93)

-3.78 (-6.73 ; -0.84)

 10–19 years

18511

62

0.71 (0.52 ; 0.96)

-4.82 (-9.11 ; -0.53)

21361

81

0.63 (0.48 ; 0.82)

-5.57 (-8.74 ; -2.40)

 ≥20 years

24651

65

0.47 (0.31 ; 0.70)

-9.72 (-15.3 ; -4.15)

28057

104

0.48 (0.35 ; 0.67)

-10.4 (-13.7 ; -7.16)

 

 P linear trend

  

<0.0001

   

<0.0001

 
  1. aNumbers in bold denote statistical significance (P < 0.05). Heterogeneity was regarded as negligible if not significant (P < 0.05) or I2 < 30 %. Otherwise, if significant (P < 0.05), it was classified as * moderate (30 % < I2 < 50 %), ** substantial (50 % < I2 < 75 %), or *** considerable (I2 > 75 %)
  2. bCohort-specific Hazard Ratios (HRs) and Rate Advancement Periods (RAPs) were summarized with meta-analyses using random effects models. HRs and RAPs were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, education, vigorous physical activity, history of diabetes and alcohol consumption
  3. cThe total number of participants for the analyses with cancer incidence is smaller because the participants with a diagnosis of cancer before baseline were excluded. Furthermore, some cohorts (HAPIEE and SENECA cohorts) had no cancer incidence data available for the analyses
  4. dFor the analyses with the categories of years since smoking cessation, the data from the NIH-AARP and MORGAM FI were not included because they had different categories available
  5. HAPIEE Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe, SENECA Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly a Concerned Action, NIH-AARP National Institute of Health – American Association of Retired Persons, MORGAM Monica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph, which included the cohort MORGAM FI FINRISK Study (Finland)