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Table 3 Associations of smoking status and time since smoking cessation with colorectal, gastric and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortalitya,b

From: Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

Cancer site Smoking exposure Cancer incidence Cancer mortality
Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI) Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI)
Colorectal cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 4359 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 1702 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 6273 1.20 (1.15 ; 1.25) 2.62 (2.00 ; 3.24) 368808 2264 1.22 (1.13 ; 1.31) 2.19 (1.35 ; 3.02)
 Current 128615 2064 1.20 (1.07 ; 1.34) * 3.64 (2.81 ; 4.46) 140672 912 1.35 (1.16 ; 1.58) 4.61 (3.53 ; 5.68)
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 318 1.00 (0.87 ; 1.16) -0.11 (-1.94 ; 1.72) 22693 152 1.07 (0.86 ; 1.32) 0.22 (-2.09 ; 2.53)
 10–19 years 18511 365 1.11 (0.97 ; 1.27) 1.16 (-0.53 ; 2.84) 21361 167 1.07 (0.87 ; 1.31) 0.31 (-1.83 ; 2.45)
   ≥20 years 24651 514 0.88 (0.78 ; 1.00) -1.95 (-3.58 ; -0.32) 28057 205 0.76 (0.63 ; 0.93) -3.18 (-5.24 ; -1.11)
   P linear trend    0.1885     0.0134  
Gastric cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 598 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 463 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 880 1.18 (0.95; 1.46) 1.80 (-0.31 ; 3.91) 368808 631 1.31 (1.02 ; 1.68) 2.08 (0.02 ; 4.14)
 Current 128615 388 1.74 (1.50; 2.02) 5.62 (3.85 ; 7.39) 140672 302 1.73 (1.36 ; 2.19) 5.22 (3.08 ; 7.36)
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 54 0.85 (0.60 ; 1.20) -3.02 (-6.43 ; 0.40) 22693 61 1.13 (0.80 ; 1.58) -0.59 (-3.90 ; 2.72)
 10–19 years 18511 51 0.68 (0.41 ; 1.12) -3.48 (-7.00 ; 0.05) 21361 45 0.72 (0.46 ; 1.14) -2.62 (-6.57 ; 1.32)
   ≥20 years 24651 77 0.69 (0.51 ; 0.93) -2.42 (-5.08 ; 0.24) 28057 77 0.87 (0.64 ; 1.19) -1.89 (-5.25 ; 1.47)
   P linear trend    0.0461     0.2355  
Pancreatic cancer Smoking status
 Never 321984 921 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 346559 1186 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 353311 1216 1.13 (0.95 ; 1.35) 1.45 (0.23 ; 2.67) 368808 1609 1.19 (0.98 ; 1.45) 1.85 (0.85 ; 2.86)
 Current 128615 635 1.90 (1.48 ; 2.43) * 7.57 (4.31 ; 10.8) * 140672 808 2.19 (1.74 ; 2.75) ** 8.50 (6.45 ; 10.5)
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 19049 74 0.83 (0.62 ; 1.11) -2.16 (-6.01 ; 1.69) 22693 93 0.72 (0.56 ; 0.93) -3.78 (-6.73 ; -0.84)
 10–19 years 18511 62 0.71 (0.52 ; 0.96) -4.82 (-9.11 ; -0.53) 21361 81 0.63 (0.48 ; 0.82) -5.57 (-8.74 ; -2.40)
 ≥20 years 24651 65 0.47 (0.31 ; 0.70) -9.72 (-15.3 ; -4.15) 28057 104 0.48 (0.35 ; 0.67) -10.4 (-13.7 ; -7.16)
   P linear trend    <0.0001     <0.0001  
  1. aNumbers in bold denote statistical significance (P < 0.05). Heterogeneity was regarded as negligible if not significant (P < 0.05) or I2 < 30 %. Otherwise, if significant (P < 0.05), it was classified as * moderate (30 % < I2 < 50 %), ** substantial (50 % < I2 < 75 %), or *** considerable (I2 > 75 %)
  2. bCohort-specific Hazard Ratios (HRs) and Rate Advancement Periods (RAPs) were summarized with meta-analyses using random effects models. HRs and RAPs were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, education, vigorous physical activity, history of diabetes and alcohol consumption
  3. cThe total number of participants for the analyses with cancer incidence is smaller because the participants with a diagnosis of cancer before baseline were excluded. Furthermore, some cohorts (HAPIEE and SENECA cohorts) had no cancer incidence data available for the analyses
  4. dFor the analyses with the categories of years since smoking cessation, the data from the NIH-AARP and MORGAM FI were not included because they had different categories available
  5. HAPIEE Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe, SENECA Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly a Concerned Action, NIH-AARP National Institute of Health – American Association of Retired Persons, MORGAM Monica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph, which included the cohort MORGAM FI FINRISK Study (Finland)