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Table 4 Associations of smoking status and time since smoking cessation with sex-specific cancer incidence and mortalitya,b

From: Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

Cancer site Smoking exposure Cancer incidence Cancer mortality
Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI) Totalc Cases HR (95 % CI) RAP (95 % CI)
Breast cancer Smoking status
 Never 174507 7121 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 191907 1197 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 116656 5428 1.08 (1.04 ; 1.12) 2.37 (0.68 ; 4.06) 121725 905 1.15 (1.05 ; 1.27) 2.71 (0.78 ; 4.63)
 Current 59755 2536 1.07 (1.00 ; 1.15) 3.83 (1.76 ; 5.91) 64470 466 1.28 (1.06 ; 1.55) 5.10 (2.47 ; 7.72)
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 8348 275 0.97 (0.84 ; 1.13) -2.49 (-7.49 ; 2.52) 9726 49 0.98 (0.57 ; 1.67) -1.82 (-8.21; 4.57)
 10–19 years 7044 253 1.03 (0.81 ; 1.31) -3.87 (-9.84 ; 2.10) 8092 43 1.02 (0.70 ; 1.49) 0.51 (-7.55 ; 8.57)
 ≥20 years 8437 333 1.03 (0.85 ; 1.24) -3.77 (-10.2 ; 2.66) 9539 61 1.23 (0.69 ; 2.21) -0.56 (-8.57 ; 1.48)
   P linear trend    0.7293     0.4549  
Prostate cancer Smoking status
 Never 147477 11090 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference) 154652 920 1.00 (reference) 0.00 (reference)
 Former 236655 17257 0.88 (0.82 ; 0.95) * -1.67 (-2.80; -0.54) ** 247083 1644 1.04 (0.94 ; 1.15) 0.29 (-0.33 ; 0.91)
 Current 68860 3701 0.81 (0.72 ; 0.91) ** -2.89 (-4.81; -0.97) ** 76202 589 1.26 (0.97 ; 1.64)** 1.88 (0.25 ; 3.51)
Years since smoking cessation (reference: current smokers)d
 ≤9 years 10701 536 1.00 (0.90 ; 1.12) 0.51 (-0.83 ; 1.84) 12967 98 0.94 (0.64 ; 1.37) -1.03 (-3.35 ; 1.30)
 10–19 years 11467 702 1.03 (0.89 ; 1.19) 1.09 (-0.17 ; 2.35) 13269 130 0.95 (0.74 ; 1.20) -0.43 (-2.18 ; 1.32)
 ≥20 years 16214 1227 1.08 (0.99 ; 1.18) 0.75 (-0.38 ; 1.88) 18518 228 0.82 (0.67 ; 1.00) -1.71 (-3.18; -0.24)
   P linear trend    0.0480     0.0838  
  1. aNumbers in bold denote statistical significance (P < 0.05). Heterogeneity was regarded as negligible if not significant (P < 0.05) or I2 < 30 %. Otherwise, if significant (P < 0.05), it was classified as * moderate (30 % < I2 < 50 %), ** substantial (50 % < I2 < 75 %), or *** considerable (I2 > 75 %)
  2. bCohort-specific Hazard Ratios (HRs) and Rate Advancement Periods (RAPs) were summarized with meta-analyses using random effects models. HRs and RAPs were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, education, vigorous physical activity, history of diabetes, and alcohol consumption
  3. cThe total number of participants equals to the total number of women (for breast cancer) or men (for prostate cancer). The total number of participants for the analyses with cancer incidence is smaller because the participants with a diagnosis of cancer before baseline were excluded. Furthermore, some cohorts (HAPIEE and SENECA cohorts) had no cancer incidence data available for the analyses
  4. dFor the analyses with the categories of years since smoking cessation, the data from the NIH-AARP and MORGAM FI were not included because they had different categories available
  5. HAPIEE Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe, SENECA Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly a Concerned Action, NIH-AARP National Institute of Health – American Association of Retired Persons, MORGAM Monica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph, which included the cohort MORGAM FI FINRISK Study (Finland)