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Table 2 Hazard ratios and confidence intervals for death prior to age 70 years in the EPIC cohort

From: Modifiable causes of premature death in middle-age in Western Europe: results from the EPIC cohort study

   Overall Women Men
   Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2
  HR (95 % CI) HR (95 % CI) HR (95 % CI) HR (95 % CI) HR (95 % CI) HR (95 % CI)
Smoking status Never 1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00  
  Former 1.39 (1.32–1.46) 1.37 (1.30–1.43) 1.30 (1.21–1.39) 1.29 (1.20–1.38) 1.47 (1.36–1.58) 1.43 (1.32–1.54)
  Smoker 2.38 (2.27–2.50) 2.36 (2.25–2.48) 2.16 (2.03–2.30) 2.14 (2.01–2.29) 2.57 (2.39–2.77) 2.54 (2.36–2.73)
Physical activity Inactive 1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00  
  Moderately inactive 0.78 (0.74–0.82) 0.79 (0.75–0.82) 0.78 (0.73–0.84) 0.79 (0.73–0.84) 0.77 (0.72–0.82) 0.77 (0.72–0.83)
  Moderately active 0.75 (0.71–0.79) 0.75 (0.71–0.79) 0.72 (0.66–0.78) 0.72 (0.67–0.78) 0.76 (0.70–0.82) 0.77 (0.71–0.83)
  Active 0.71 (0.67–0.75) 0.72 (0.68–0.76) 0.69 (0.64–0.75) 0.69 (0.64–0.76) 0.72 (0.67–0.77) 0.73 (0.68–0.78)
Diet Unhealthy 1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00  
  Moderately unhealthy 0.87 (0.82–0.92) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 0.85 (0.77–0.93) 0.85 (0.77–0.93) 0.88 (0.82–0.94) 0.89 (0.83–0.95)
  Moderately healthy 0.80 (0.75–0.85) 0.81 (0.76–0.87) 0.78 (0.70–0.86) 0.79 (0.71–0.87) 0.80 (0.74–0.88) 0.82 (0.75–0.90)
  Healthy 0.75 (0.70–0.81) 0.77 (0.72–0.83) 0.73 (0.66–0.82) 0.75 (0.67–0.83) 0.76 (0.67–0.85) 0.78 (0.69–0.88)
Alcohol intake (drinks/day) 0 1.58 (1.47–1.70) 1.58 (1.47–1.70) 1.46 (1.33–1.61) 1.46 (1.32–1.60) 1.90 (1.70–2.12) 1.91 (1.71–2.14)
0–0.5 1.17 (1.10–1.25) 1.18 (1.11–1.25) 1.13 (1.04–1.22) 1.13 (1.04–1.22) 1.26 (1.14–1.38) 1.27 (1.15–1.39)
  0.5–1 1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00  
  1–2 0.97 (0.91–1.04) 0.97 (0.91–1.04) 0.98 (0.90–1.08) 0.98 (0.89–1.08) 0.97 (0.89–1.07) 0.97 (0.88–1.07)
  2–6 1.07 (1.00–1.14) 1.06 (1.00–1.13) 1.16 (1.05–1.27) 1.15 (1.04–1.26) 1.04 (0.96–1.14) 1.03 (0.95–1.13)
  > 6 (women), 6–10 (men) 1.51 (1.38–1.66) 1.47 (1.34–1.62) 1.72 (1.38–2.15) 1.63 (1.31–2.04) 1.48 (1.32–1.65) 1.45 (1.29–1.62)
  > 10 (men) 2.47 (2.12–2.88) 2.40 (2.06–2.79)      2.43 (2.07–2.85) 2.38 (2.02–2.79)
Blood pressure Normal 1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00  
  Pre-hypertension 1.03 (0.97–1.09) 0.99 (0.93–1.04) 1.04 (0.96–1.11) 1.00 (0.93–1.07) 1.04 (0.95–1.14) 0.99 (0.90–1.08)
  Hypertension 1 1.19 (1.12–1.26) 1.12 (1.06–1.19) 1.16 (1.07–1.26) 1.10 (1.02–1.19) 1.24 (1.13–1.37) 1.15 (1.05–1.27)
  Hypertension. 2 1.56 (1.46–1.67) 1.45 (1.36–1.55) 1.50 (1.37–1.65) 1.42 (1.29–1.55) 1.63 (1.47–1.81) 1.50 (1.36–1.66)
BMI (kg/m2) < 20 1.62 (1.48–1.76)    1.47 (1.33–1.63)    1.98 (1.70–2.30)   
  20–21.9 1.17 (1.09–1.25)    1.10 (1.01–1.20)    1.25 (1.13–1.40)   
  22–24.9 (reference) 1.00     1.00     1.00    
  25–29.9 (overweight) 0.98 (0.94–1.03)    1.03 (0.96–1.10)    0.97 (0.91–1.03)   
  30–34.9 (obese) 1.16 (1.09–1.23)    1.05 (0.95–1.15)    1.26 (1.16–1.37)   
  35+ (very obese) 1.61 (1.47–1.76)    1.55 (1.38–1.75)    1.76 (1.54–2.01)   
Waist-to-hip ratio (fifths) 1    1.00     1.00     1.00  
2    1.01 (0.95–1.07)    1.00 (0.91–1.09)    1.03 (0.95–1.13)
  3    1.02 (0.96–1.08)    0.99 (0.92–1.08)    1.06 (0.97–1.15)
  4    1.19 (1.11–1.26)    1.15 (1.05–1.25)    1.24 (1.13–1.36)
  5    1.44 (1.36–1.53)    1.39 (1.28–1.51)    1.52 (1.39–1.65)
  1. Estimates from flexible parametric survival models with attained age as the time-scale. Models included all listed covariates, as well as age at baseline attendance and country of recruitment. Overall estimates are also adjusted for sex. Model 1 includes BMI, whereas Model 2 includes waist-to-hip ratio as a measure of adiposity. Model 1 and Model 2 are otherwise identical