Fig. 3
From: Fast and accurate dynamic estimation of field effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines
Vaccine effectiveness of MenC vaccine in England. Number of serogroup C disease cases notified by Public Health England (PHE) during the epidemiological years between 1995 and 2006. The vaccination campaign started in November 1999 (a). The red solid line represents the average number of IMD cases generated by the model, with the best estimates of VEdir and VEind. The MCML best estimate of vaccine effectiveness against disease VEdir after 2 years of observed disease cases in the cohorts targeted by routine or catch-up vaccination is 96.5 % [94.8 %, 97.9 %] (b, in red). Gray symbols in (b) indicate the results obtained after 4 and 10 years by observational studies [25, 26] using the screening method. The MCML method simultaneously estimates the indirect vaccine effectiveness VEind (c, in red) with a best estimate equal to VEind=68.8 % (95 % CI = [54.4 %, 83.3 %]), based on PHE notified cases. This value is compared to best estimates based on carriage studies [28, 30] (c, in dark gray). IMD invasive meningococcal disease, MCML Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, MenC serogroup C meningococcal