Table 2 Diagnostic accuracy of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence referral criteria and its comparison with the COLONPREDICT score at the thresholds with 90 % (5.6) and 99 % (3.5) sensitivity for colorectal cancer detection in the derivation cohort

Number positives

52.2 %

30.9 %

60.5 %

Sensitivity^a

68.2 % (61.5–74.3)

90.1 % (85.1–93.6)

99.5 % (97.0–100.0)

Significance^b

<0.001

<0.001

Specificity^a

50.3 % (47.6–53.0)

78.7 % (76.4–80.9)

45.8 % (43.1–48.2)

Significance^c

<0.001

<0.001

Positive predictive value^a

17.8 % (15.3–20.6)

40.7 % (36.2–45.3)

22.9 % (20.3–25.8)

Negative predictive value^a

91.0 % (89–93)

98.0 % (96.9–98.7)

99.8 % (98.9–100.0)

Positive likelihood ratio^d

1.4 (1.2–1.5)

4.2 (3.8–4.7)

1.8 (1.7–1.9)

Negative likelihood ratio^d

0.6 (0.5–0.8)

0.1 (0.08–0.2)

0.01 (0.0–0.07)

Diagnostic odds ratio^d

2.2 (1.6–2.9)

33.8 (21.1–54.0)

179 (25–1280)