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Table 1 Data inputs and model assumptions

From: The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality

Variable (symbol)

Point estimate (range)

Source

Population at risk

 Annual global BCG-eligible birth cohort (B)

130.8 million

[1, 10, 11]

 Population vaccinated

HIV-negative

[12]

 HIV-negative paediatric TB deaths in 2013 (Mort)

80,000 (64,000–97,000)

[19]

Vaccine deployment

 Annual BCG demand (D)

260 million

[2, 6]

 BCG coverage in 2013 (Cov)

90 %

[14]

Vaccine characteristics

 Vaccine efficacy against TB death (VE)

66 % (8–88 %)

[16, 17]

 Duration of protection

15 years

[16]

 Waning of protection

None

Assumption

 Catch-up campaign

None

Assumption