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Table 1 Data inputs and model assumptions

From: The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality

Variable (symbol) Point estimate (range) Source
Population at risk
 Annual global BCG-eligible birth cohort (B) 130.8 million [1, 10, 11]
 Population vaccinated HIV-negative [12]
 HIV-negative paediatric TB deaths in 2013 (Mort) 80,000 (64,000–97,000) [19]
Vaccine deployment
 Annual BCG demand (D) 260 million [2, 6]
 BCG coverage in 2013 (Cov) 90 % [14]
Vaccine characteristics
 Vaccine efficacy against TB death (VE) 66 % (8–88 %) [16, 17]
 Duration of protection 15 years [16]
 Waning of protection None Assumption
 Catch-up campaign None Assumption