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Table 2 Estimated additional paediatric TB deaths in BCG supply shortfall scenarios

From: The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality

Supply shortfall (%) Number of doses shortfall (million) Global BCG coverage (%) Estimated number of additional paediatric TB deaths in a 1 year cohort in the first 15 years of life Increase in number of deaths (%)
Median 95 % Uncertainty Range
6.3 16.5 84 7433 320–19,477 9.3
10 26 81 11,713 505–30,691 14.6
20 52 72 23,426 1010–61,382 29.3
27.6 71.8 65 32,347 1394–84,755 40.4
100 260 0 117,132 5049–306,911 146.4