Table 2 Estimated additional paediatric TB deaths in BCG supply shortfall scenarios
From: The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality
Supply shortfall (%) | Number of doses shortfall (million) | Global BCG coverage (%) | Estimated number of additional paediatric TB deaths in a 1 year cohort in the first 15 years of life | Increase in number of deaths (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Median | 95 % Uncertainty Range | ||||
6.3 | 16.5 | 84 | 7433 | 320–19,477 | 9.3 |
10 | 26 | 81 | 11,713 | 505–30,691 | 14.6 |
20 | 52 | 72 | 23,426 | 1010–61,382 | 29.3 |
27.6 | 71.8 | 65 | 32,347 | 1394–84,755 | 40.4 |
100 | 260 | 0 | 117,132 | 5049–306,911 | 146.4 |